Bell County

Bell County's gross rent-to-price ratio sits at 6.39%, which translates to a 4.16% cap rate on a median-priced acquisition. At a 6.85% financing rate, the math turns negative quickly: the model underwrite shows a $441 monthly cash-flow deficit and a cash-on-cash return of -9.28% on a 20% down payment. Home prices declined 1.9% year-over-year, so there is no near-term appreciation story cushioning that drag. The affordability index of 77 and median price of $247,929 suggest the market is not expensive in absolute terms, but the spread between cap rate and cost of debt is wide enough that leverage is working against you, not for you, at current rates.

That arithmetic draws a clear line around who belongs here. A cash-flow buyer deploying leverage at market rates should look elsewhere: the -9.28% cash-on-cash return is not a rounding error, it is a structural problem at this price-to-rent combination and rate environment. An all-cash or low-leverage buyer gets a cleaner look, since a 4.16% cap rate on a $248,000 asset is at least in the conversation against other fixed-income alternatives, and the affordability score of 77 means there is a real tenant pool that can pay $1,320 per month. A value-add operator who can push rents above the $1,321 median or acquire below the median price has the most plausible path to positive returns, but the margin for error is thin given where debt costs sit. Appreciation buyers face a 41 appreciation score and a -1.9% price move over the past year, which is not the profile that justifies buying a negative cash-flow asset and waiting.

Bell County's population of 372,821 gives it meaningful scale for a Central Texas county, and the rental demand base is real. The county contains Killeen and Temple, anchored by Fort Cavazos (formerly Fort Hood), one of the largest U.S. Army installations in the world. Military-driven rental demand creates a relatively stable tenant pipeline, since PCS cycles and BAH allowances sustain occupancy independent of local private-sector employment swings. That said, military concentration is a double-edged characteristic: a significant drawdown or realignment at Fort Cavazos would remove a large portion of the demand base with limited local private-sector absorption. The stability score of 50 reflects that exposure accurately.

The tax-and-insurance carry deserves a dedicated line on any underwrite. At a state-average effective property tax rate of 1.80%, Bell County sits in "high" territory, and the model estimates $4,463 in annual property tax on the median asset. Combined with $1,240 in estimated annual insurance, the monthly tax-and-insurance burden runs $475. That figure alone nearly matches the estimated monthly mortgage payment of $1,300, meaning roughly 27% of gross rent ($1,321) is consumed by tax and insurance before mortgage service, vacancy, maintenance, or management. Texas has no state income tax, which is a genuine offset, but investors accustomed to lower-tax states need to recalibrate. The 1.80% rate is a state-average estimate per Tax Foundation 2024 data, and actual Bell County or township-level rates may differ, so pull the county appraisal district's current levy before finalizing any underwrite.

The comparison to neighboring counties clarifies Bell's positioning. Victoria County has an almost identical rent-to-price ratio of 6.39% versus Bell's 6.39%, an overall score of 58 versus Bell's 57, and a median price of $211,088 against Bell's $247,929. Victoria gets you the same cap-rate profile at a lower absolute basis, which reduces both down-payment requirements and tax liability. Hamilton and Robertson counties carry slightly higher median prices ($260,560 and $259,047, respectively) with overall scores around 56 to 58, offering no obvious advantage over Bell. Hutchinson County at $114,329 and Duval County at $75,098 are in a different price tier entirely: entry capital is far lower, which mechanically improves cash-on-cash math, though both carry overall scores of 55 to 58 and likely reflect smaller, less liquid markets. An investor should choose Bell over its neighbors specifically when the Fort Cavazos demand story is the investment thesis, when portfolio scale requires a larger population base, or when the operator has a value-add edge in the Killeen-Temple corridor. If the thesis is simply yield, the lower-priced alternatives in the neighbor set may pencil better once the full underwrite is run.