Goliad County

Goliad County scores an 82 on appreciation and a 0 on cash flow, which tells you everything you need to know about where this market sits on the spectrum. At a median home price of $282,576 and with no rent or cap rate data available in the provided figures, the investment case here is built almost entirely on price growth, not yield. Home values are up 3.67% year-over-year, a modest but positive trajectory for a county of only 7,092 people. The affordability index of 69 suggests the market is not cheap relative to local incomes, which is a constraint on both rental demand depth and future price acceleration, but it is not so stretched that it signals an imminent correction.

This market suits an appreciation-oriented buyer who is comfortable holding a thinly traded asset in a small rural county, and specifically someone who does not need the property to carry itself from day one. A cash-flow buyer should look elsewhere. The cash-flow score of 0 is unambiguous, and with no rent figures in the data, there is no basis to underwrite a yield-driven deal with confidence. A value-add operator would face the same challenge: without a functioning rental comp base to anchor exit rents, the execution risk on a repositioning play is high. The appreciation score of 82 puts Goliad in the top fifth of markets on that dimension nationally, ranking 169th out of 1,000 counties overall and 22nd out of 243 Texas counties, so the growth signal is real, but the narrow buyer pool for a 7,092-person county means liquidity risk is always present if you need to exit.

No economic anchor data was provided for Goliad, so this analysis cannot speak to the employer base or demand drivers behind that appreciation score. That is itself a due diligence flag: before committing capital to a county this small, an investor should independently verify what is pulling prices up, whether that is proximity to the Corpus Christi or San Antonio metro corridors, oil and gas activity, or something else entirely.

The carry cost picture deserves close attention. At a purchase price of $282,576, Texas's state-average effective property tax rate of 1.80% produces an annual tax bill of approximately $5,086, and insurance adds another $1,413 per year. Combined, that is $542 per month in taxes and insurance before a single dollar of mortgage, maintenance, or management cost. At 1.80%, this rate qualifies as high and needs its own line on your underwrite, not a rounding assumption. Texas has no state income tax, but it funds local government through property taxes, and the burden is real. Note that 1.80% is a state-average effective rate per Tax Foundation 2024 data; the actual rate in Goliad County or a specific township may differ meaningfully, so confirm with the county appraisal district before closing. With a $56,515 down payment and a 6.85% interest rate on the remaining balance, the monthly mortgage alone is a significant number even before layering in that $542 tax-and-insurance drag, which makes achieving positive cash flow very difficult without an above-average rent-to-price ratio that the data does not currently support.

The primary risks here are concentration and liquidity. A 7,092-person county with a stability score of 50 offers limited economic diversification. If local demand softens, there are few replacement tenants or buyers to absorb the slack, and days-on-market can extend sharply in small rural Texas markets. The stability score sitting at the midpoint is not a green light; it signals that this county has meaningful volatility exposure relative to the broader dataset. No vacancy or regulatory data was provided, so those dimensions cannot be assessed here, but rural Texas markets generally carry lower regulatory risk than urban ones.

Comparing Goliad to its listed neighbors clarifies the trade-off precisely. Wichita County, with a median price of $163,787 and a rent-to-price ratio of 0.0867, generates materially more gross yield from dollar one and scores 68 overall, only one point below Goliad. An investor who needs cash flow should be in Wichita, not Goliad. Matagorda County at $210,399 and a rent-to-price ratio of 0.0539 offers a middle ground at a lower price point, though its overall score of 64 reflects weaker total attractiveness. Cottle, Donley, and Dawson counties all price well below $165,000, but their limited data and matching 68 scores suggest they are speculative rural plays without a clear catalyst. Choose Goliad over these neighbors only if your thesis is explicit appreciation capture over a multi-year hold, you can carry the $542 monthly tax-and-insurance load comfortably without rental income, and you have verified locally what is driving prices in a county too small to rely on macro tailwinds alone.