Matagorda County

Matagorda County sits at a gross rent-to-price ratio of 5.03%, which places it firmly in appreciation-lean territory rather than cash-flow country. The cap rate of 3.27% is the clearest signal: at a $205,845 median purchase price and $863 median monthly rent, the income simply does not cover the carry at current financing costs. Running a standard 20% down on that purchase price produces a monthly mortgage of $1,079 at 6.85%, and once you layer in estimated expenses of $302, the model spits out negative $518 per month in cash flow and a cash-on-cash return of -13.13%. Home price appreciation of 0.67% year-over-year is well below inflation, so the deal is not compensating on the back end either. The affordability index of 86 tells you prices are accessible relative to incomes, which matters for tenant depth, but accessibility alone does not solve a structurally negative carry situation.

The cash-flow buyer has little business here under current conditions. A 3.27% cap rate against a 6.85% borrowing cost means leverage is working against you by roughly 358 basis points, and there is no near-term rent growth story embedded in the data that suggests that gap closes quickly. The appreciation buyer faces a different problem: 0.67% price growth annually is barely movement, and at the 46th national percentile and 76th out of 243 Texas counties on overall score, Matagorda is squarely median. The investor best positioned here is probably a value-add operator or all-cash buyer who can either force appreciation through renovation, push rents above the $863 county median, or underwrite without the drag of a 6.85% mortgage. Even for an all-cash buyer, a 3.27% cap rate is thin by most standards, so the thesis would need to rest on a specific asset at a discount to the median rather than the market in aggregate.

No economic anchors or employer data were provided for this county, so drawing conclusions about job base, income stability, or rental demand drivers from that angle is not possible here. What the population figure does suggest is that at 36,251 residents, Matagorda is a small, relatively illiquid market. Thin liquidity cuts both ways: it can create opportunities to buy below replacement cost, but it also means extended hold periods when it is time to exit and limited comparables to anchor your appraisal.

On carry costs, the tax and insurance load deserves its own line on any underwrite. At a state-average effective property tax rate of 1.80%, Texas's rate is high enough to be a real drag, and the data flags it accordingly. Annual property tax on the median asset runs approximately $3,705, and annual insurance adds another $1,029, producing a combined monthly tax-and-insurance burden of $395. That figure alone represents 46% of the $863 median rent, which is the core structural problem in this market: the cost stack is heavy relative to achievable rents. Keep in mind that 1.80% is a state-average estimate from Tax Foundation 2024 data, and actual county or township rates in Matagorda may differ, so pull the local assessor's records before finalizing any underwrite.

The primary risk here is demographic and demand concentration. A county of 36,251 people with below-inflation price growth and a median rent under $900 does not have the population density or economic diversification to absorb supply shocks or tenant losses quickly. Vacancy exposure on a single-family rental in a thin market like this can swing your annual return by several percentage points in either direction. Regulatory risk is not flagged by the data, but the small-market illiquidity risk is real and worth pricing into your hold-period assumptions.

Comparing the neighbors sharpens the picture. Victoria County, at a $211,088 median price and $1,124 median rent, produces a rent-to-price ratio of 6.39% versus Matagorda's 5.03%. That 136-basis-point spread in gross yield, on nearly the same purchase price, translates to roughly $261 more per month in gross rent for comparable capital deployed. Both counties carry the same overall score of 58, which means Victoria is not a riskier market by this model's measure, it simply pencils better on income. For a buy-and-hold investor optimizing for rent coverage rather than speculation, Victoria is the more compelling allocation at current price levels. Hutchinson County at $114,329 median price and Duval County at $75,098 represent much cheaper entry points, but without rent data for those counties it is impossible to assess whether their yields compensate for presumably thinner local economies. Hamilton and Robertson counties are priced above Matagorda without available rent data to evaluate. The clearest case for choosing Matagorda over its neighbors would be a specific off-market deal trading at a significant discount to the $206,000 median, combined with a value-add plan that pushes rents materially above $863. Buying at the median and holding for passive income does not work here.