Jeff Davis County

Jeff Davis County sits at the far end of the buy-and-hold spectrum, and not in a flattering way. The investment estimate data returns zeros across cap rate, cash-on-cash return, estimated cash flow, and monthly mortgage, which signals that the tool cannot construct a viable rental income model here. That alone is the loudest number on the page. Layer on a median home price of $196,133, a year-over-year price decline of 14.4%, a median household income of $38,125, and an affordability index of 53, and the picture sharpens: this is a small, illiquid market where both the income base and the price trend are moving in the wrong direction simultaneously. The overall score of 31 out of 100 places Jeff Davis in the 1st percentile nationally and 215th out of 243 Texas counties evaluated.

The cash-flow score is zero and the appreciation score is zero, which means Jeff Davis does not fit cleanly into either camp an investor might be evaluating. It is not a cash-flow market, because the rental demand pool in a county of 1,992 residents is too thin to support a reliable rent roll. It is not an appreciation market, because prices fell nearly 14.4% in the last year. The stability score of 50 is middling, and the affordability score of 53 is the one number that is not a red flag, but affordability only matters if there are tenants to fill units. A value-add operator needs a resale exit or a refi event to justify the work, and a 14.4% price decline means neither exit is attractive right now. In short, the data does not identify a buyer profile for whom Jeff Davis County is the right call.

No economic anchors or employer data were provided for Jeff Davis County. What the population figure does tell you is that at 1,992 residents, this is one of the least populated counties in Texas. Thin population means thin rental demand, high tenant concentration risk, and virtually no absorption capacity if you need to re-lease a vacant unit. A single job loss by a tenant, or one employer reducing headcount, can translate directly into an extended vacancy with no replacement tenant pipeline. That dynamic is not a projection; it is the arithmetic of a sub-2,000-person county.

On carry costs, the tax and insurance numbers deserve direct attention. Using a state-average effective property tax rate of 1.80%, flagged as high, the annual property tax on a $196,133 purchase comes to approximately $3,530. Annual insurance adds another $981 at the 0.50% estimate. Combined, that is $376 per month in tax and insurance before you count mortgage, maintenance, management, or vacancy. At 1.80%, the rate is high enough that it needs its own line on your underwrite, and you should verify the actual Jeff Davis County rate before closing, since the 1.80% figure is a state-average estimate and county or township assessments can diverge materially. With a $39,227 down payment and a 6.85% interest rate on the remaining balance, debt service alone would run well above $1,000 per month. Against a $376 monthly tax-and-insurance load and a median income of $38,125 in the county, the math on supporting a market-rate rent that clears all costs is difficult to construct.

The primary risks here are concentration and liquidity, both supported directly by the data. A county of 1,992 people has an extremely narrow buyer pool if you need to sell, and an even narrower renter pool if you need to lease. A 14.4% year-over-year price decline in a market this small can reflect just a handful of transactions moving the median, but the direction is still negative and the recovery timeline in a low-population, low-income county is uncertain. No vacancy or crime statistics were provided, so no claims are made there, but the structural risk of a micro-market is self-evident from the population figure alone.

Compared to its neighbors in the dataset, Jeff Davis scores the lowest of the group at 31. Shackelford County at 44 and Bandera County at 44 both outscore Jeff Davis and offer different profiles: Shackelford at a $148,074 median is cheaper with a higher score, and Bandera at $329,463 is a Hill Country market with a higher price point but presumably more rental demand. Willacy County at 42 and a $169,393 median offers lower entry cost with a better overall score. Real County at 38 scores higher than Jeff Davis with a $273,282 median. None of the neighbors are standout markets, with all scoring between 36 and 44, but every one of them outranks Jeff Davis on the overall score. If you are evaluating this region of Texas for a buy-and-hold acquisition, the data consistently points away from Jeff Davis and toward any of the five counties listed here as comparables, with Shackelford offering the lowest entry price at a materially better score, and Bandera or Blanco County suitable for an investor whose thesis leans toward longer-term land and lifestyle demand rather than yield.