San Juan County

San Juan County comes in at a median home price of $364,132 with year-over-year appreciation of 1.73%, which is modest but positive. The data does not include a median rent figure or cap rate for this county, which is itself informative: the cash flow score is 0, meaning the tool cannot construct a positive cash flow case here on current numbers. The appreciation score of 67 out of 100 is the standout metric, placing this market clearly on the appreciation end of the spectrum rather than the income end. An affordability index of 52 and an overall score of 57, landing at the 42nd percentile nationally and 12th out of 28 Utah counties, suggests a middle-of-the-pack market that earns its score almost entirely from price trajectory rather than yield.

For a cash flow buyer, San Juan is not the right call. The absence of any calculable cap rate or cash-on-cash return, combined with a 6.85% financing environment, means the numbers don't pencil for income-oriented strategies without specific deal-level conditions that the county averages don't support. An appreciation buyer with a long time horizon and tolerance for thin or negative near-term cash flow is the natural fit here, particularly one who believes the 1.73% annual price growth has room to accelerate. Value-add operators could theoretically find opportunity if they can force appreciation through renovation in a market where median prices are already at $364,132, but without rent data to underwrite against, that calculation requires additional due diligence the county-level data can't provide.

On carry costs, the tax and insurance picture is one genuine tailwind. Utah's state-average effective property tax rate of 0.63% is flagged as low, and the numbers bear that out: annual property tax on the median home runs approximately $2,294, annual insurance approximately $692, combining to $249 per month. That is a real number in the context of total holding costs, and low tax drag meaningfully reduces monthly cash burn for an investor carrying this asset through an appreciation hold. Worth noting, as with all figures here, that 0.63% is a state-average estimate per Tax Foundation 2024 data and actual San Juan County or township rates may differ, so verify at the county assessor before finalizing your underwrite.

The more significant risks here are structural. A population of 14,524 is thin, and small-population rural markets carry concentration risk that shows up in liquidity, not just vacancy. If a major local employer softens or a single economic driver shifts, a market this size absorbs the shock slowly and buyers are harder to find on the exit. No economic anchor data was provided, so the rental demand story is difficult to assess precisely. What the numbers do suggest is that investor interest likely centers on the recreational and tourism characteristics common to this part of southeastern Utah, including proximity to Bears Ears National Monument and Canyonlands, but the data does not quantify that thesis. Investors leaning on a tourism-adjacent rental strategy should independently verify short-term rental regulatory conditions, which are increasingly restrictive in Utah's recreation corridor counties.

Compared to its neighbors, San Juan's case sharpens by contrast. Uintah County at a median of $344,789 and a rent-to-price ratio of 0.050 (roughly 5.0%) and Sevier County at $322,742 with a 0.054 ratio both offer more legible cash flow math and score 58 and 61 overall, respectively. Sevier scores four points above San Juan and costs $41,000 less on the median, which for a cash flow or balanced-return buyer is a straightforward call. Sanpete County scores 62 at a median of $385,224, slightly pricier but with a higher overall score, making it a more competitive choice if price isn't the constraint. Rich County and Kane County sit at 58 and 52 overall at significantly higher price points, $578,085 and $403,730, without outperforming on score. The specific case for choosing San Juan over any of these neighbors comes down to the appreciation score of 67, which is the highest in this peer set based on the data provided. If an investor has strong conviction on long-term value appreciation in the Bears Ears and southeastern Utah corridor, has the capital to absorb near-term neutral or negative cash flow, and values the low tax carry, San Juan makes sense. If income matters now, Sevier or Uintah are the cleaner entry points.