Goshen County

Goshen County's headline numbers tell a straightforward story: median home price of $253,669, median rent of $1,000, and a gross rent-to-price ratio of 0.047, or roughly 4.7%. That ratio sits below the 1%-per-month threshold most cash-flow investors use as a floor, and the modeled underwrite confirms it. At a 6.85% rate with 20% down, the monthly mortgage comes to $1,330. Add $350 in estimated operating expenses and $180 in monthly tax and insurance, and you're looking at total monthly carry of roughly $1,860 against $1,000 in rent, producing negative $680 in monthly cash flow and a cash-on-cash return of -14.0%. The cap rate of 3.07% is below what most buyers require to justify the illiquidity of a small-market single-family rental. Home price appreciation offers little near-term rescue: year-over-year price growth was 0.28%, essentially flat. This is a market that scores 53 out of 100 overall, lands at the 30th percentile nationally out of 1,000 counties analyzed, and ranks 15th out of 23 Wyoming counties. The numbers place Goshen firmly toward the low end of both the cash-flow and appreciation spectrums simultaneously, which is the most difficult combination for a conventional buy-and-hold strategy.

The affordability index of 76 is the one genuinely attractive data point here, and it does create an opening for a specific type of operator. A value-add buyer who can acquire below the median, force appreciation through renovation, and refinance or sell into a higher-value asset is the profile most likely to extract returns in this market. The affordability score also suggests that owner-occupant demand could absorb inventory, which helps an investor exit. A pure cash-flow buyer running the numbers at list price and market rent will find this market unworkable at current interest rates. An appreciation buyer needs evidence of demand catalysts that simply don't appear in the data as provided. The value-add angle is the only viable entry, and it requires a meaningful discount to the $253,669 median to make the math work.

Wyoming carries no state income tax, which is a structural tailwind for any investor booking rental income here. The property tax picture reinforces that advantage. Wyoming's state-average effective property tax rate is 0.61%, flagged as low, producing an estimated $1,547 in annual property tax on a median-priced asset, or about $129 per month. Combined with an estimated $51 per month in insurance, the total tax-and-insurance carry of $180 per month is materially lighter than what investors face in high-tax states. That said, the note accompanying this estimate is worth taking seriously: 0.61% is a state-average effective rate sourced from Tax Foundation 2024 data, and actual county or township rates in Goshen may differ. Run the county assessor's numbers before finalizing any underwrite. Even with favorable tax carry, the gap between rent and total monthly costs is wide enough that the low tax rate doesn't change the investment thesis, it just makes a bad deal slightly less bad.

The primary risk in Goshen is size and concentration. A population of 12,592 means the rental pool is shallow. Tenant turnover, a single large employer reducing headcount, or any outmigration trend can move vacancy rates quickly in a market this small. The data does not include economic anchor information for Goshen, so employer concentration cannot be assessed directly, but the population figure alone warrants caution. A landlord carrying one or two vacant units in a 12,000-person county faces a meaningfully longer re-leasing timeline than in a larger market. Demographic attrition is also a latent risk in many small Wyoming counties, and while this data doesn't confirm it for Goshen specifically, it's a due-diligence item any serious buyer should research before committing capital.

Against its Wyoming neighbors, Goshen's $253,669 median is the second-lowest in the comparison set, above only Weston County at $237,731. That price point is Goshen's primary competitive advantage. However, Natrona County, with a median of $303,500, a rent-to-price ratio of 5.0%, median rent of $1,265, and an overall score of 58, presents a materially better cash-flow profile despite the higher entry cost. Laramie County at $376,645 carries a 4.4% rent-to-price ratio and a score of 54, suggesting that its higher rents of $1,373 per month don't fully compensate for the higher price. Weston County scores 55 at a lower price point but lacks rent data in this dataset. An investor choosing Goshen over Natrona is accepting a worse rent-to-price ratio, lower rents, and a smaller population for a $50,000 reduction in purchase price. That tradeoff makes sense only if the investor is specifically targeting the lowest possible acquisition cost for a value-add play, not if they're optimizing for rental income or market depth. Natrona is the stronger buy-and-hold market in this comparison set. Goshen merits attention only when price is the binding constraint or when a specific off-market deal creates enough margin to overcome the structural cash-flow deficit.