Johnson County

Johnson County, Wyoming comes in with a median home price of $422,644, up 2.39% year-over-year, and an affordability index of 40, meaning the market is priced well above what a typical local household can comfortably absorb. The cash flow score is 0 and the cap rate field returns zero, which is the clearest signal in this dataset: this is not a county where the rent-to-price math works on day one. The data does not provide a local median rent figure, so any cash-on-cash projection would require the investor to source rent comps independently before underwriting. What the numbers do show is an appreciation score of 74 out of 100, a stability score of 50, and an overall rank of 479th out of 1,000 counties nationally, placing Johnson in the 39th percentile. That combination, high appreciation score with zeroed cash flow metrics, puts this county firmly on the appreciation end of the spectrum with little to offer the yield-focused buyer.

The investor this market suits is someone buying for long-term price appreciation and willing to carry negative or breakeven cash flow while the asset grows. The 2.39% annual price appreciation is modest in absolute terms but consistent with a low-inventory, low-population market of 8,536 people where supply constraints, not speculative demand, are likely doing the work. A value-add operator targeting forced appreciation through renovation could make a case here if acquisition prices allow for a margin of safety, but the $422,644 median price is a high entry point for a county this small, and thin rental demand in a population of under 9,000 limits the exit options on a repositioned rental. Cash flow buyers should look elsewhere in Wyoming.

On carry costs, Johnson County is actually a tailwind on the tax side. The state-average effective property tax rate is 0.61%, flagged as low, and the combined insurance rate adds another 0.24%, producing an estimated $299 per month in tax and insurance on a median-priced acquisition. That is $3,592 annually, a meaningful reduction in operating drag compared to high-tax states. Keep in mind this is a state-average estimate per the Tax Foundation's 2024 data, and actual county or township rates may differ, so pull the county assessor data before finalizing your underwrite. Still, the low property tax rate is a genuine structural advantage that partially offsets the weak gross yield, and investors should model it as such rather than using a national average assumption.

No economic anchor or employer data was provided for Johnson County, so this analysis cannot speak to the specific drivers of rental demand or job stability in the local economy. With a population of 8,536, the county is small enough that a single employer or sector contraction could have an outsized effect on occupancy. That concentration risk deserves weight in any underwrite even if this dataset cannot quantify it directly. Investors unfamiliar with the Buffalo, Wyoming area, which anchors the county seat, should do ground-level diligence on the local employment base before committing capital.

Looking at neighboring counties, two provide rent data that Johnson does not. Natrona County, home to Casper, carries a median home price of $303,500, a rent-to-price ratio of 0.050, and an overall score of 58, outranking Johnson on every investor-relevant metric. Laramie County, anchoring Cheyenne, sits at $376,645 with a rent-to-price ratio of 0.044 and a score of 54. Both counties offer meaningfully better gross yield math and lower entry prices. Weston County at $237,731 is the lowest-priced option in the peer set, though no rent data is provided. Crook County at $405,497 scores 60 overall, the highest in the group, at a lower price point than Johnson. Sublette County at $435,658 scores 53, making it the closest comparable in price but weaker on overall score.

The case for choosing Johnson over any of these neighbors is narrow. If an investor has a specific thesis around land, ranch, or recreational property appreciation in northeast Wyoming and is structuring a hold strategy around long-term asset value rather than rental income, Johnson's appreciation score of 74 has some merit. But for a conventional buy-and-hold rental investor optimizing for yield, occupancy reliability, and liquidity at exit, Natrona County's rent-to-price ratio of 0.050 at a $119,000 lower price point is the more defensible allocation within the same state.