Ketchikan Gateway Borough

Ketchikan Gateway Borough scores a cash flow of zero and a cap rate of zero in the provided data, which tells you most of what you need to know about how this market pencils as an income play. The appreciation score of 85 out of 100 and 8.07% year-over-year home price growth on a median purchase price of $410,478 tell the other half of the story. This is not a market where the numbers work from day one on a leveraged buy-and-hold rental. With an affordability index of 42 and a population of just under 14,000, you are buying into a small, supply-constrained Southeast Alaska community where price momentum is real but cash-on-cash math is difficult to close.

The investor this market suits is squarely in the appreciation camp, not the cash-flow camp. The 8.07% YoY price gain is meaningful on a $410,478 asset, representing roughly $33,000 in equity in a single year if that pace holds. A value-add operator who can force appreciation through renovation and push rents above market may find a path to acceptable returns, but the base-case underwrite at $410,478 with a 6.85% interest rate does not produce positive cash flow on the numbers provided. A cash-flow buyer looking for immediate income should look elsewhere. An appreciation-focused buyer with a long hold horizon and the patience to carry a property in a remote, low-inventory market is the profile that fits.

The taxInsurance data introduces a meaningful carry cost to model carefully. At $462 per month combined for taxes and insurance, that is $5,542 annually before mortgage, maintenance, vacancy, or management. The state-average effective property tax rate of 1.18% is flagged as normal, so it is not an outsized headwind on its own, but in a market where the gross rent yield data is absent and cash flow is already at zero, $462 monthly in fixed carry costs is a number that needs to sit on its own line in your underwrite. Keep in mind that 1.18% is a state-average estimate per the Tax Foundation, and actual rates at the borough or municipal level in Ketchikan may differ, so verify the current mill rate directly before closing.

No economic anchor data was provided for Ketchikan Gateway Borough, so employer-level analysis is not available here. What the population figure does signal is concentration risk. At 13,910 residents, this is a small market with limited renter depth. A handful of major employer layoffs, a shift in seasonal tourism patterns, or any sustained outmigration could move vacancy rates materially. Small coastal Alaskan communities have historically been sensitive to fishing industry cycles, government spending, and ferry system access, though the data provided does not quantify any of those factors. An investor should independently verify current vacancy conditions and the health of local employment before committing capital.

Comparing Ketchikan to its Alaska neighbors clarifies where it fits in the state's investment landscape. Fairbanks North Star Borough stands out with a rent-to-price ratio of 0.0723 against a median home price of $289,473 and a median rent of $1,744, making it the most credible cash-flow candidate among the markets shown. Anchorage Borough sits at a rent-to-price ratio of 0.0499 on a $410,550 median, and Matanuska-Susitna Borough offers a ratio of 0.0525 on a slightly lower median of $386,815, with both markets scoring 59-62 overall. Sitka Borough carries the highest price tag at $485,060 with a score of 64. Ketchikan's overall score of 62 is competitive within the state peer group, but its differentiation is the appreciation score of 85, the highest implied momentum in this set. If your thesis is equity growth and you are willing to carry negative or breakeven cash flow in a remote Southeast Alaska market, Ketchikan makes a case. If you need income from day one, Fairbanks North Star, with its 0.0723 rent-to-price ratio and $289,473 entry price, is the market to underwrite first.