Greenlee market analysis
Greenlee County lands at the 10th national percentile overall and ranks 9th out of 15 Arizona counties in this dataset, which tells you most of what you need to know before reading another word. The median home price of $158,770 is the headline, and it is genuinely low, giving the county an affordability index of 96 out of 100. The problem is that the cash-flow and appreciation scores both register zero, and home prices declined 13.4% year-over-year. There is no cap rate or cash-on-cash return calculable from the available data, which itself signals thin or absent rental market depth. A low purchase price only translates into investor value when rent exists to service the asset. Without a measurable rent-to-price ratio or gross rent figure here, the affordability story stays incomplete, and a disciplined underwriter should treat this as a data gap rather than an opportunity.
The score profile, cash flow at zero, appreciation at zero, stability at 50, affordability at 96, describes a market that suits almost no conventional buy-and-hold strategy cleanly. A cash-flow buyer needs rent data to underwrite; that data is absent. An appreciation buyer sees a 13.4% price decline and no appreciation score to suggest a recovery thesis. A value-add operator working a distressed asset could theoretically exploit the $158,770 price point, but value-add plays depend on an exit or a refinance, and both require a functioning comparable-sales market and verifiable rent comps. The affordability index is the one unambiguous positive here, but affordability alone does not generate returns.
No economic anchors or employer data were provided for Greenlee County, so the employment picture cannot be assessed from this dataset. What the population figure of 9,483 does tell you is that this is a micro-market. Thin population means thin tenant pools, thin comparable sales, and thin liquidity. Any landlord vacancy event in a market this size carries outsized weight because there are few alternative tenants cycling through. Concentration risk is structural here, not a cyclical concern.
On carry costs, the tax-and-insurance picture is a genuine tailwind relative to the national average. Arizona's state-average effective property tax rate is 0.62%, which the Tax Foundation flags as low, and combined with an insurance rate of 0.23%, the blended monthly tax-and-insurance load on a $158,770 asset comes to approximately $112. That is a manageable number. To be clear, 0.62% is a state-average estimate and actual Greenlee County or township rates may differ, so verify the county assessor's rate before finalizing any underwrite. Still, if rents were available and penciled to a positive spread, the carry cost structure would be a tailwind rather than a drag, which is not something you can say about every Arizona county.
The risks here are concentrated and structural. Population of 9,483 creates illiquidity in both the rental and resale markets. A 13.4% year-over-year price decline is not a rounding error; it is a directional signal that demand has softened materially. Without vacancy data, crime statistics, or regulatory context in the provided dataset, those dimensions cannot be scored, but a market this small with declining prices and no measurable rent activity deserves a higher burden of proof before capital is committed.
Comparing Greenlee to its Arizona neighbors sharpens the picture. Pima County carries a rent-to-price ratio of 5.34% and an overall score of 46 on a median home price of $339,306. Mohave County sits at 5.48% rent-to-price and scores 47 on $344,368. Both offer verifiable rental income data, larger tenant pools, and higher overall scores despite requiring roughly twice the capital. Maricopa and Coconino are pricier still, with rent-to-price ratios of 4.57% and 4.16% respectively, making them harder cash-flow cases. The practical conclusion is that Mohave and Pima offer better-documented cash-flow setups than Greenlee at higher price points but with far more market liquidity. An investor should choose Greenlee over these neighbors only if they have on-the-ground knowledge of specific rent comps unavailable in aggregated datasets, or are pursuing a deeply discounted distressed acquisition where the gap between purchase price and replacement cost creates margin that compensates for every uncertainty this data leaves open.
Price History
Median Home Price
Median Rent
Historical data from Zillow ZHVI/ZORI
Score Breakdown
Rent data not available for cash flow calculation.
Based on -13.4% YoY price growth. Moderate growth (3-8%) scores highest.
Population data not available.
Based on price relative to estimated local incomes.
Scores are calculated using real Zillow home value and rent data, Census population data, and economic indicators. The weighted average produces the overall investment score. Markets with missing rent data use estimated values based on regional averages.
Investment Outlook
Strengths
- +Affordable relative to local incomes
Challenges
- -Declining home values (-13.4% YoY)
- -Negative leverage (cap rate 0.0% < mortgage rate 6.9%)
- -Limited rent data (estimates used)
Economic Indicators
Who this market fits
- −You can't tolerate negative leverage (cap rate below mortgage rate today)
- −You expect appreciation to carry the deal, but prices have declined year over year
- −You want a market with broad institutional consensus on fundamentals
Compare to Nearby Counties
The Bottom Line
Greenlee County in Arizona scores 44/100, ranking #702 of 1,000 US counties (top 90%). At 20% down and current rates, a median-priced rental roughly breaks even on cash flow. The deal works on appreciation or with better terms, not on month-one cash flow.