Scenario comparison
| Scenario | Purchase price | Monthly cash flow | Cap rate | Cash-on-cash |
|---|---|---|---|---|
75% of median value-add or distressed | $653,403 | -$1,512/mo | 3.5% | -12.1% |
Median typical MLS deal | $871,204 | -$2,653/mo | 2.6% | -15.9% |
125% of median newer / premium | $1,089,005 | -$3,795/mo | 2.1% | -18.2% |
Price History
Median Home Price
Median Rent
Historical data from Zillow ZHVI/ZORI
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Purchase
Monthly Cash Flow
* Based on county median values. 35% expenses include taxes, insurance, maintenance, vacancy, and property management. Actual results vary by property.
Score Breakdown
Based on 4.05% rent-to-price ratio. Higher ratios indicate stronger cash flow potential.
Based on -1.7% YoY price growth. Moderate growth (3-8%) scores highest.
Population data not available.
Based on price relative to estimated local incomes.
Scores are calculated using real Zillow home value and rent data, Census population data, and economic indicators. The weighted average produces the overall investment score. Markets with missing rent data use estimated values based on regional averages.
Investment Outlook
Strengths
- +Complete rent data available
Challenges
- -Below-average rent-to-price ratio (4.05%)
- -Declining home values (-1.7% YoY)
- -Negative cash flow at typical financing (-$2,653/mo)
- -Negative leverage (cap rate 2.6% < mortgage rate 6.9%)
Economic Indicators
Who this market fits
- +All-cash buyers: removing debt service flips the cap rate to actual yield
- −You need positive cash flow on day one at typical leverage
- −You can't tolerate negative leverage (cap rate below mortgage rate today)
- −You expect appreciation to carry the deal, but prices have declined year over year
- −You rely on FHA-style financing: prices are stretched relative to local incomes
Compare to Nearby Counties
Section 8 in Napa County: payment standards by ZIP, PHA waitlist status, and voucher counts are on VoucherMatch, the same HUD dataset with the tenant demand side attached.
The Bottom Line
Napa County in California scores 33/100, ranking #773 of 1,000 US counties (top 99%). At 20% down and current rates, a median-priced rental loses about $2653/month; the 4.05% gross rent-to-price ratio doesn't survive debt service. The thesis here is appreciation, value-add, house hacking, or all-cash.