Alachua market analysis
Alachua County sits at a gross rent-to-price ratio of 6.58%, which places it on the lower end of cash-flow territory but meaningfully above pure appreciation plays. The modeled cap rate comes in at 4.28%, and with a 20% down payment at 6.85% interest, the all-in monthly picture turns negative: estimated cash flow of -$501 per month and a cash-on-cash return of -8.74%. Median home price is $298,912 against median rent of $1,640, and home prices have dipped 1.3% year-over-year, so you are not getting appreciation momentum to compensate for the carry drag. The overall score of 56 out of 100, landing in the 39th percentile nationally and 15th out of 67 Florida counties, tells a middle-of-the-road story: this is not a write-off, but it is not a straightforward buy at current financing costs either.
The cash-flow score of 66 and affordability index of 66 suggest the market has more going for it than the leveraged returns imply. The problem is the math at 6.85%. An investor who can bring a larger down payment, pay cash, or find assets below the $298,912 median stands a real chance of getting to breakeven or better. The appreciation score of 44 and a negative year-over-year price trend mean this is not the market for a pure appreciation thesis. The investor best positioned here is a cash-heavy buyer targeting the lower price tiers, or a value-add operator who can push rents above the $1,640 median through unit upgrades. A stability score of 50 signals neither a runaway market nor a distressed one, which suits a patient landlord better than someone counting on short-term price gains.
Alachua County is anchored by the University of Florida, one of the largest public universities in the United States, and UF Health, a major academic medical center. These two institutions create a structural rental demand floor that most comparably sized markets cannot claim. Student, faculty, staff, and healthcare-worker households generate consistent lease activity with limited sensitivity to local economic cycles. That demand profile skews toward smaller units and near-campus corridors, so your acquisition strategy should be mapped against proximity to those anchors. A property two miles from campus faces a fundamentally different tenant pool than one in a suburban subdivision ten miles out, and your underwriting should price that difference.
The combined monthly tax and insurance figure here is $389, which is material but not alarming. The state-average effective property tax rate of 0.89% is flagged as normal, meaning it does not create a structural disadvantage relative to peer Florida markets, though the honest caveat is that this is a state-average estimate and actual county or township rates may differ. Insurance at 0.67% annually, or roughly $167 per month on a $298,912 asset, reflects Florida's increasingly stressed homeowners insurance environment. Both figures are already embedded in the -$501 monthly cash-flow estimate, so the headline number already accounts for them, but underwriting each deal individually against actual insurance quotes is essential given how much carrier pricing has moved in Florida over the past two years.
The concentration risk here is real and worth naming directly. A market this tethered to a single university institution means enrollment trends, state higher-education funding decisions, and remote-learning shifts all carry outsized weight. The stability score of 50 reflects this double-edged dynamic: UF provides demand consistency, but it also means the market does not diversify well against institutional shocks. Regulatory risk under Florida law is currently landlord-friendly relative to many other states, but that can shift. There are no vacancy or demographic statistics in the provided data to draw harder conclusions, so the concentration exposure is the primary specific risk to flag.
Among the neighboring counties, Putnam County stands out as the sharpest contrast: a median home price of $210,748, median rent of $1,369, and a rent-to-price ratio of 7.79%, the highest in this peer group. If cash flow is the primary objective and the university anchor is not essential to your tenant sourcing strategy, Putnam offers better starting economics even with lower absolute rents. Escambia County is a close overall peer (score of 56) with a rent-to-price ratio of 6.99%, slightly better than Alachua's 6.58%, and a lower price point at $273,928. Leon County and Columbia County both trail on rent-to-price ratios (6.15% and 6.51%, respectively) and carry lower overall scores of 55. Clay County has the highest rents in the group at $1,825 but also the highest prices at $331,840, landing a rent-to-price ratio nearly identical to Alachua at 6.60%. Choose Alachua over these neighbors specifically when the University of Florida and UF Health demand base is central to your tenant strategy, when you have access to below-median pricing, or when you are running a value-add play that can capture rent upside in a market with a durable institutional demand floor.
Scenario comparison
| Scenario | Purchase price | Monthly cash flow | Cap rate | Cash-on-cash |
|---|---|---|---|---|
75% of median value-add or distressed | $224,184 | -$109/mo | 5.7% | -2.5% |
Median typical MLS deal | $298,912 | -$501/mo | 4.3% | -8.7% |
125% of median newer / premium | $373,640 | -$893/mo | 3.4% | -12.5% |
Price History
Median Home Price
Median Rent
Historical data from Zillow ZHVI/ZORI
Quick Investment Calculator
Purchase
Monthly Cash Flow
* Based on county median values. 35% expenses include taxes, insurance, maintenance, vacancy, and property management. Actual results vary by property.
Score Breakdown
Based on 6.58% rent-to-price ratio. Higher ratios indicate stronger cash flow potential.
Based on -1.3% YoY price growth. Moderate growth (3-8%) scores highest.
Population data not available.
Based on price relative to estimated local incomes.
Scores are calculated using real Zillow home value and rent data, Census population data, and economic indicators. The weighted average produces the overall investment score. Markets with missing rent data use estimated values based on regional averages.
Investment Outlook
Strengths
- +Complete rent data available
Challenges
- -Declining home values (-1.3% YoY)
- -Negative cash flow at typical financing (-$501/mo)
- -Negative leverage (cap rate 4.3% < mortgage rate 6.9%)
Economic Indicators
Who this market fits
- +All-cash buyers: removing debt service flips the cap rate to actual yield
- −You need positive cash flow on day one at typical leverage
- −You can't tolerate negative leverage (cap rate below mortgage rate today)
- −You expect appreciation to carry the deal, but prices have declined year over year
Compare to Nearby Counties
Section 8 in Alachua County: payment standards by ZIP, PHA waitlist status, and voucher counts are on VoucherMatch, the same HUD dataset with the tenant demand side attached.
The Bottom Line
Alachua County in Florida scores 56/100, ranking #479 of 1,000 US counties (top 61%). At 20% down and current rates, a median-priced rental loses about $501/month; the 6.58% gross rent-to-price ratio doesn't survive debt service. The thesis here is appreciation, value-add, house hacking, or all-cash.
Related markets
Markets like Alachua with stronger cash flow
Cheaper alternatives to Alachua
Head-to-head comparisons
Average rent by city in Alachua County
- Average rent in Gainesville$1,629/mo
Typical asking rent across each city's ZIP codes (Zillow Observed Rent Index). Open a city for rent by ZIP and bedroom count.