Hamilton market analysis
Hamilton County, Illinois sits at a median home price of $106,389, which makes it one of the more affordable entry points in the state. Home prices declined 3.78% year-over-year, so this is not a market where appreciation is doing any work for you. The county scores 31 out of 100 on appreciation and 0 on cash flow, and with cap rate and cash-on-cash return both registering as zero in the model, the investment math here is not producing a clear positive return at current rent levels. The affordability score of 100 is the one bright spot numerically, meaning the purchase price itself is accessible, but cheap to buy is not the same as profitable to own.
The cash-flow score of 0 is the number that should anchor every conversation about this county. Without positive cash-on-cash return or a meaningful cap rate, this market does not suit a cash-flow buyer running standard underwriting at a 6.85% rate. An appreciation buyer is equally out of luck given the negative price trend. The investor profile most likely to find a use case here is a value-add operator who can buy at or below the $106,389 median, force equity through renovation, and either refinance or exit into a thin but existing buyer pool, or bring rents up enough to push the operating math into positive territory. Even then, the ceiling matters: in an 8,008-person county with declining home values, the addressable renter pool is small and the market's capacity to absorb rent increases is limited.
No economic anchor data was provided for Hamilton County, so employment and demand drivers cannot be assessed from the available inputs. That absence is itself a signal worth noting. Small Illinois counties without identifiable institutional employers, universities, or healthcare anchors tend to carry meaningful vacancy risk during economic downturns, and an investor evaluating this market should conduct ground-level research on the local employer base before committing capital.
Property tax is the single biggest carry-cost risk in this market. Illinois's state-average effective rate is 2.27%, flagged as very high, and at that rate a $106,389 purchase generates approximately $2,415 in annual property tax, or $201 per month. Combined with the $287 annual insurance estimate, the monthly tax-and-insurance load is $225 before debt service, maintenance, or management. That $225 represents a heavy fixed cost relative to the rent levels a sub-$110,000 home commands in a rural Illinois county. Importantly, the 2.27% figure is a state-average estimate from Tax Foundation 2024 data, and actual Hamilton County or township rates may differ, in either direction. Before closing, pull the assessor's current tax bill on any specific parcel, because the sticker price on this market already leaves almost no margin and an above-average local rate could eliminate it entirely.
The market's risks concentrate around three structural realities: small population (8,008), falling home prices, and the absence of any visible economic anchor. Declining values in a thin, rural market mean a longer hold is required to recover transaction costs, and any unexpected capital expenditure, roof, HVAC, foundation, comes directly out of what is already a zero or negative return scenario. Regulatory risk cannot be assessed from the provided data, but Illinois in general carries landlord-unfavorable court timelines that investors used to faster eviction jurisdictions should underwrite for.
Compared to its neighbors, Hamilton is cheapest on price but also the weakest performer by score. Greene County, at a nearly identical $106,001 median, scores 65 overall versus Hamilton's 57, making it a direct competitor worth evaluating first if price point is the primary filter. DuPage County scores 66 and has a rent-to-price ratio of 0.0588 with median rent of $2,040, meaning the income math is far more functional there, though the $416,478 entry price and likely higher operating costs are a different category of investment. Monroe County at $327,942 and a 0.047 gross rent yield at $1,285 median rent sits in the middle on both price and yield. Calhoun County at $184,783 and an overall score of 61 offers a better composite score at a still-affordable entry point. Hamilton County makes sense over these neighbors only if an investor has a specific off-market opportunity, a local contractor relationship, or a value-add thesis that cannot be replicated at the same price in Greene County. On the published numbers alone, Greene County is the more defensible choice at the same price point.
Price History
Median Home Price
Median Rent
Historical data from Zillow ZHVI/ZORI
Score Breakdown
Rent data not available for cash flow calculation.
Based on -3.8% YoY price growth. Moderate growth (3-8%) scores highest.
Population data not available.
Based on price relative to estimated local incomes.
Scores are calculated using real Zillow home value and rent data, Census population data, and economic indicators. The weighted average produces the overall investment score. Markets with missing rent data use estimated values based on regional averages.
Investment Outlook
Strengths
- +Affordable relative to local incomes
Challenges
- -Declining home values (-3.8% YoY)
- -Negative leverage (cap rate 0.0% < mortgage rate 6.9%)
- -Limited rent data (estimates used)
Economic Indicators
Who this market fits
- −You can't tolerate negative leverage (cap rate below mortgage rate today)
- −You expect appreciation to carry the deal, but prices have declined year over year
Compare to Nearby Counties
Section 8 in Hamilton County: payment standards by ZIP, PHA waitlist status, and voucher counts are on VoucherMatch, the same HUD dataset with the tenant demand side attached.
The Bottom Line
Hamilton County in Illinois scores 57/100, ranking #451 of 1,000 US counties (top 58%). At 20% down and current rates, a median-priced rental roughly breaks even on cash flow. The deal works on appreciation or with better terms, not on month-one cash flow.