Morgan County

Morgan County sits at a median home price of $138,223, up 4.1% year-over-year, which places it firmly in the affordable tier of Illinois markets. The affordability index reads 100, the highest possible, and the county ranks in the 98th percentile nationally out of 1,000 counties scored. That ranking is driven almost entirely by price and appreciation, not cash flow: the cash flow score is 0, meaning the numbers as they sit do not support a straightforward buy-and-hold rental return at current interest rates. With a 6.85% rate on a conventional structure, the mortgage alone on a 20% down purchase consumes a significant share of any achievable rent, and no cap rate or gross yield figure clears the bar needed to call this a cash-flow market. Investors need to understand that going in.

The 83 appreciation score is the number that justifies a serious look. At $138,223 and growing at 4.1% annually, Morgan is producing nominal price gains that represent real dollar appreciation on a low acquisition basis. For an investor whose primary thesis is long-term equity accumulation, buying at this price point and holding through a multi-year cycle has a cleaner story than trying to manufacture monthly surplus. The affordability score of 100 also suggests the market is not overextended relative to local incomes, which is a meaningful signal that prices are not propped up by speculative demand and are therefore more likely to be durable. Value-add operators who can force equity through renovation and refinance into a lower effective basis have the most interesting angle here, because the entry price is low enough to absorb improvement costs while still leaving room for a workable yield. A pure cash-flow buyer, however, will struggle to pencil this market at a 6.85% rate without an unusually low acquisition price or significant rent premium from a renovated product.

The property tax picture is the single most important carry-cost variable in Morgan County and deserves its own line on any underwrite. Illinois carries a state-average effective property tax rate of 2.27%, which the Tax Foundation classifies as very high, and at that rate the annual tax bill on a $138,223 home comes to approximately $3,138. Add $373 in estimated annual insurance and the combined monthly tax-and-insurance load is $293. That is real money on a rental that may generate $900 to $1,100 in gross rent, and it is the primary reason the cash flow score is 0. The honest caveat: 2.27% is a state-average estimate and actual rates in Morgan County or specific townships may differ. Pull the county assessor data before closing. If the local effective rate is even modestly lower than the state average, the cash-flow picture improves meaningfully given the low acquisition basis. If it runs higher, as many downstate Illinois counties do, the deal math gets harder still.

The stability score of 50 is the metric that should prompt the most due diligence. A mid-range stability score on a county with a population of 32,882 signals meaningful concentration risk. Small single-industry or limited-employer markets in downstate Illinois have faced population pressure over the long cycle, and a declining renter pool directly undermines any rent growth assumption embedded in an appreciation thesis. Without economic anchor data provided here, no specific employers can be named or evaluated, but investors should independently verify the depth of the local employment base and whether any single employer represents an outsized share of local demand. Demographic trends and population trajectory matter more in a county this size than in a large metro, and a 4.1% home price gain that is partly a post-pandemic mean-reversion artifact in affordable markets deserves skepticism if underlying population is flat or declining.

Compared to its neighbors, Morgan's $138,223 median is the second-lowest in the group, sitting above only Edwards County at $124,765. Edwards scores a point higher overall at 79 despite the lower price, which suggests Edwards may offer a marginally better combination of metrics for investors who want to go even cheaper on basis. Peoria County, at $154,382 and a rent-to-price ratio of 9.1%, is the neighbor that cash-flow buyers should be benchmarking against: that ratio is materially better than what can be inferred from Morgan's scored data, and Peoria's larger population and more diversified economic base likely support a higher stability score. Saint Clair County, at $173,515 and a rent-to-price ratio of 8.4%, offers a larger market with measurable rent data but a higher entry price and a lower overall score of 77. Bureau County and Iroquois County match Morgan's overall score of 78 at slightly higher prices with no rent data provided. The investor who chooses Morgan over its neighbors is essentially betting that the appreciation trajectory holds and that the very low entry price offsets the tax burden over time. That is a defensible thesis for a patient, equity-focused buyer, but anyone who needs the property to carry itself from month one should look at Peoria first.