Rock Island County

Rock Island County sits at a gross rent-to-price ratio of 7.27%, which puts it firmly on the cash-flow end of the spectrum for an Illinois market. At a median home price of $156,822 and median rent of $950, the raw yield looks attractive before financing, and the 4.72% cap rate confirms there is real income here relative to asset cost. The appreciation score of 83 with 3.94% year-over-year price growth adds a secondary return layer that is not always present in lower-priced Midwest markets. The affordability index of 96 and a national percentile rank of 91st out of 1,000 counties signal that this market offers genuine value relative to what comparable rent income is available elsewhere. The caveat is the leveraged picture: at 6.85% financing with 20% down, the modeled cash flow turns negative at -$205 per month and the cash-on-cash return comes in at -6.82%. This is not unusual in the current rate environment, but it means Rock Island is not a set-it-and-forget-it cash-flow market at today's rates without either a larger down payment, value-add rent upside, or rate improvement through a refinance.

The investor best suited here is someone willing to accept breakeven-to-slightly-negative cash flow in the near term while banking on appreciation and principal paydown, or an operator who can push rents above the $950 median through light renovation or better asset selection within the county. The 3.94% annual price growth is meaningful at a $156,822 basis, translating to roughly $6,180 in equity appreciation per year on a median-priced asset. A value-add buyer who acquires below median, improves, and re-rents above $950 can close the cash-flow gap meaningfully. The pure cash-flow buyer buying at median with conventional financing will be disappointed at today's rates. The appreciation buyer gets a reasonable entry price and a market trending upward, though the stability score of 50 warrants attention as a counterweight to that optimism.

The stability score of 50 is the number that demands the most scrutiny in any hold-period underwriting. It suggests the local economy carries more concentration or volatility risk than top-tier markets, which affects vacancy assumptions and rent growth durability. No economic anchor data was provided for Rock Island, so employer-specific analysis cannot be made, but investors should conduct their own diligence on the Quad Cities regional economy before committing. A stability score of 50 in an otherwise attractive market typically reflects sensitivity to one or two dominant industries or employers; if those headcounts contract, rental demand follows. That makes conservative vacancy underwriting essential here.

Property taxes in Illinois are a real underwriting consideration in Rock Island, and the numbers make this point clearly. The state-average effective rate of 2.27% is very high by national standards, and at the $156,822 median price it generates $3,560 in annual property tax alone. Combined with $423 in estimated annual insurance, the combined monthly tax-and-insurance carry is $332, which is more than 35% of the $950 median rent before a dollar of mortgage, maintenance, or management is counted. This is not a rounding error; it is a structural cost that directly explains why the leveraged cash flow turns negative despite a 7.27% gross yield. The 2.27% figure is a state-average estimate from Tax Foundation 2024 data, and actual Rock Island County or township rates may differ, so pulling the specific assessed-value rate for any target property before underwriting is essential, not optional.

Comparing Rock Island to its neighbors sharpens the picture. Winnebago County, home to Rockford, has a slightly higher rent-to-price ratio of 7.44% against a $195,413 median price and $1,212 median rent, with an overall score of 75 versus Rock Island's 74. Winnebago offers more absolute rent but requires a larger capital outlay and carries similar Illinois property tax exposure. Pike County comes in at a $112,450 median with an overall score of 75, making it cheaper to enter, but lower-priced rural Illinois markets typically carry more liquidity and stability risk that is not captured in a one-point score difference. Livingston and Shelby counties score 74 and 75 respectively at similar price points to Rock Island but without the same rent data available for comparison. Woodford County, at $220,926 and a score of 72, is the most expensive neighbor and the weakest scorer. Rock Island distinguishes itself from the group by combining a sub-$160,000 median price with a documented rent level and a top-decile national ranking, making it the most data-supported entry point in this peer set. An investor should choose Rock Island over its neighbors when the priority is a larger, more liquid market with a verified rent-to-price ratio, and should choose Pike County only if a lower absolute entry cost justifies accepting thinner data and likely lower demand depth.