Coles County

Coles County sits at a median home price of $145,077 and a median rent of $771, producing a gross rent-to-price ratio of 6.38%. That ratio sits below the 8-9% threshold most cash-flow investors use as a floor for reliably positive returns, which the model confirms: at a 6.85% financing rate, a 20% down purchase pencils to negative $259 per month in cash flow and a cash-on-cash return of -9.31%. The 4.15% cap rate does not clear the cost of debt, so levered returns are negative on a stabilized basis. The appreciation story, however, is materially different. Home prices grew 5.42% year-over-year, and the appreciation score of 87 out of 100 places Coles well above average on that dimension nationally. This is a market that rewards equity accumulation over time, not monthly income on day one.

Given those numbers, Coles is best suited to two types of buyers and poorly suited to a third. An appreciation-oriented investor who can absorb a modest monthly carry deficit, is banking on continued price growth above the 5% range, and has a long hold horizon will find a median price of $145,077 and an affordability index of 99 attractive entry points. The low entry cost limits absolute dollar exposure even if the thesis takes longer to play out. By contrast, a pure cash-flow buyer needs to either find distressed assets priced meaningfully below the $145,077 median, bring a larger down payment to reduce debt service below the $761 monthly mortgage estimate, or pass entirely. A value-add operator faces the same math: forced appreciation through renovation can work, but the low rent ceiling of $771 per month median limits how much you can grow net operating income post-renovation. Coles does not reward the classic value-add buy-fix-rent playbook unless purchase prices are substantially below median.

The stability score of 50 out of 100 is the number that deserves the most scrutiny here, and it connects directly to the economic base. No employer-level data was provided for this analysis, so specific anchors cannot be named. What the score signals is meaningful volatility or concentration risk in the local economy, which matters for buy-and-hold investors because rental demand and rent growth are downstream of employment. An investor should conduct independent due diligence on the primary employers and sector mix before committing, particularly given the population figure of 47,076, which is small enough that a single large employer departure would measurably affect both occupancy and rents.

The tax and insurance burden in Coles deserves its own line on your underwrite, and it is one of the most consequential inputs in this analysis. Using the state-average effective property tax rate of 2.27%, a property at the $145,077 median generates an estimated $3,293 in annual property taxes, $392 in annual insurance, and a combined monthly tax-and-insurance figure of $307. That $307 is notable because it exceeds the $270 in estimated other expenses and represents 40% of the gross rent of $771. Illinois consistently posts among the highest effective property tax rates in the country, and 2.27% qualifies as very high by any reasonable benchmark. The honest caveat is that this is a state-average estimate from Tax Foundation 2024 data; actual Coles County or township-level rates may differ, and an investor should pull the actual assessor data for any specific parcel. If the real rate runs above 2.27% at the township level, the already-negative cash flow gets worse quickly.

The national ranking of 88th out of 1,000 counties (89th percentile) is the strongest single data point in Coles's favor, and it is driven almost entirely by the affordability and appreciation scores. The risk concentration here is clear: a small-population county with a stability score of 50, where the investment case depends on continued above-average price appreciation rather than income, carries demographic and demand risk that a stabilized cash-flow market does not. If population trends toward contraction or the employment base softens, the appreciation thesis weakens before the cash-flow story can compensate.

Comparing Coles to its neighbors makes the positioning clearer. Kankakee County at a 7.44% rent-to-price ratio and Williamson County at 8.39% both offer materially better gross yield profiles for a cash-flow buyer, and Williamson's median of $152,606 keeps entry costs close to Coles. Madison County at 7.02% and a median of $187,237 offers a middle path. Woodford County, at $220,926 median and an overall score of 72, is more expensive without a clear yield advantage shown in the data. A cash-flow buyer comparing options should look hard at Williamson first, where the 8.39% ratio is the highest in this peer group and the price is only $7,500 above Coles. Coles makes the most sense over its neighbors specifically when the buyer's primary objective is price appreciation with affordable entry, is comfortable subsidizing carry costs, and views the 5.42% annual price growth as likely to persist.