Greene County

Greene County sits at a gross rent-to-price ratio of 5.76%, which lands it squarely in appreciation territory rather than cash-flow territory. At the modeled purchase price of $255,838 with 20% down and a 6.85% rate, the numbers produce a cap rate of 3.75% and a cash-on-cash return of negative 11.05%, with estimated monthly cash flow of negative $542. That is not a rounding error, it is a structural shortfall driven by mortgage costs of $1,341 against median rent of $1,229. The appreciation score of 80 out of 100 and year-over-year price growth of 3.17% tell you where the market's return profile actually lives. Affordability at an index of 75 and a median price under $256,000 keep a floor under demand, but that same affordability has not yet translated into enough rent relative to purchase price to make leveraged acquisitions pencil without subsidy from price gains.

This market suits an appreciation-oriented investor with a longer hold horizon or a higher equity cushion who is willing to accept negative carry in exchange for price growth in a mid-sized Ozarks metro. It does not suit a cash-flow buyer underwriting to day-one positive returns at conventional leverage, full stop. The negative 11.05% cash-on-cash at 80% loan-to-value is too deep a hole to paper over with rent bumps alone. A value-add operator who can buy below the $255,838 median, force appreciation through renovation, and push rents meaningfully above the $1,229 median has more of a path, but they are still fighting a 3.75% cap rate environment, which leaves thin margin for error on the buy. The 68th national percentile ranking and overall score of 65 reflect a market that is better than average but not exceptional on any single dimension.

Missouri's effective property tax rate is estimated at 0.97%, producing an annual tax bill of approximately $2,482 on a median-priced Greene County home, and annual insurance runs an estimated $1,126 given the state's elevated weather exposure. Together those two line items run $301 per month. That figure is already baked into the $430 estimated expense number in the model, but it is worth isolating because it represents roughly 25% of the gross rent collected. The 0.97% rate carries a "normal" flag, meaning it is neither a tailwind nor a headwind relative to the national picture, but the combined tax-and-insurance load of $301 monthly is material when gross rent is only $1,229. If you are underwriting with lower insurance assumptions, revisit that number. The note attached to the rate is accurate: 0.97% is a state-average effective rate from Tax Foundation 2024 data, and your actual county or township rate may differ.

The primary risk in Greene County is the cash-flow deficit at current financing costs. A 6.85% rate environment combined with a sub-6% gross yield leaves no room for vacancy, capital expenditure surprises, or property management fees without widening that negative $542 monthly gap further. Stability scores at 50 out of 100, which is the lowest of the five scored categories, suggesting this market carries more cyclical or demand variability than its appreciation numbers might imply. An investor concentrated in single-family rentals here is exposed to any softening in rent growth, because there is no cash-flow cushion to absorb it.

Compared to the neighboring counties in the data, Greene is the most expensive market by median price at $255,838, but it also carries the highest appreciation score among a peer group that clusters at overall scores between 64 and 65. Saint Francois County presents the most direct contrast: median price of $186,016, median rent of $1,019, and a gross rent-to-price ratio of 6.57%, more than 80 basis points better than Greene's 5.76%. That gap matters for a cash-flow buyer. Monroe and DeKalb counties offer lower entry points at $216,427 and $228,527 respectively, though without rent or cap rate data in the provided figures it is impossible to confirm whether their yields are meaningfully better. The case for choosing Greene over its neighbors comes down to one variable: if you believe the larger population base of nearly 300,000 and the 3.17% price growth rate signal a deeper, more liquid market with better long-term appreciation, you accept the cash-flow drag. If your model requires positive carry from month one, the neighboring counties, particularly Saint Francois, are worth running the full numbers on first.