Madison County

Madison County checks in with a gross rent-to-price ratio of 6.04% and a cap rate of 3.92% at the modeled purchase price of $265,243. Those two numbers tell you what you need to know about where this market sits on the spectrum: it leans appreciation over cash flow, and not modestly so. The base-case underwrite at 6.85% financing produces a monthly mortgage of $1,390 against median rent of $1,334, generating negative cash flow of $523 per month and a cash-on-cash return of -10.29% on a $53,049 down payment. The appreciation score of 90 and 6.37% year-over-year home price growth are genuinely attractive numbers, and the county ranks in the 77th percentile nationally across 1,000 counties, placing 16th out of 62 in New York. The affordability index of 73 keeps entry prices reasonable relative to the state, but the cash flow math is unambiguous: you are paying for appreciation potential, not current income.

That profile suits a specific type of buyer. An appreciation-oriented investor comfortable carrying a monthly deficit in exchange for equity accumulation has a real argument here, especially with 6.37% annual price growth already in the rearview. A pure cash-flow buyer needs to look elsewhere or underwrite a much larger down payment to get the debt service to a level where the rent covers carry costs. A value-add operator could find opportunity if they can push rents meaningfully above the $1,334 median, since the economics improve materially at $1,600 or above with the same purchase price. The stability score of 50, however, is a caution flag for anyone depending on predictable income, suggesting the demand base may not be deep enough to absorb vacancies without feeling it in annual returns.

The tax-and-insurance load deserves its own line on your underwrite. At a 1.72% state-average effective property tax rate (Tax Foundation 2024, with the honest caveat that actual county and township rates in Madison will differ), annual taxes on a $265,243 property run approximately $4,562. Add $637 in annual insurance and you are looking at $433 per month in combined tax and insurance expense before you touch maintenance, management, or capex. That $433 monthly figure is 32% of the $1,334 median rent, which is why the cash-flow score lands at 60 despite prices that are not outrageous in absolute terms. High property taxes are a structural feature of New York markets, and Madison is no exception. Any investor modeling this county needs to treat the tax line as a fixed, material drag that will not compress as rents grow.

The most direct risk in Madison is demand concentration. With a county population of 68,020, the rental pool is limited. A softening in the primary employment base or an outmigration trend would not take long to show up in vacancy rates and rent growth. The stability score of 50 reflects that thinness. No economic anchor data was provided for this county, so there is no employer-level story to tell here, but the small population base is itself the risk worth underwriting against. Unlike an urban county where tenant demand comes from dozens of industry sectors, a market this size can be moved by a single large employer or an institutional shift, like a college enrollment decline, that narrows the renter pool.

Compared to its neighbors, Madison sits in a middle position. Monroe County offers a higher gross yield of 6.68% on a nearly identical purchase price of $269,412 with median rent of $1,499, and it matches Madison's overall score of 67 while giving up nothing on affordability. For a cash-flow-oriented buyer, Monroe is the sharper choice on the numbers alone. Wayne County comes in cheaper at $236,511 median price and a 6.11% gross yield, similar to Madison's 6.04%, with the same overall score of 67. Orleans County, Schuyler County, and Clinton County all score higher overall at 70, 70, and 71 respectively, with meaningfully lower entry prices ranging from $189,231 to $247,723. The case for choosing Madison over those neighbors comes down to the appreciation thesis: Madison's 90 appreciation score and 6.37% price growth likely outpace what those lower-priced markets can deliver for an investor prioritizing equity build over monthly income. If you are buying for appreciation and want a New York county with solid price momentum and reasonable (by state standards) entry costs, Madison holds up. If you are buying for cash flow or want a higher overall score, the neighbor set offers alternatives worth modeling before you commit.