Stark County

Stark County sits at a 3.07% cap rate with a gross rent-to-price ratio of 0.473%, annualized to about 4.73%. At a $321,830 median purchase price and $1,268 monthly rent, the math is straightforward and unfavorable for cash flow at current financing costs. Running a standard 20% down ($64,366), the modeled mortgage at 6.85% comes to $1,687 per month. Add $444 in estimated operating expenses and $357 in monthly taxes and insurance, and you are looking at negative $863 per month in cash flow, a cash-on-cash return of negative 13.99%. The appreciation score of 83 out of 100, paired with 3.94% year-over-year home price growth, tells you where the market's actual investment case lives: in equity accumulation, not monthly income. Overall, this county ranks 426th out of 1,000 nationally (46th percentile) and 27th out of 43 counties in North Dakota, a middle-of-the-pack position that reflects the tension between a decent appreciation trajectory and poor cash-flow mechanics.

This is an appreciation-buyer market, not a cash-flow play, and the numbers above make that case unambiguously. An investor chasing monthly yield should not be underwriting at these price points with conventional financing at 6.85%. The cash-flow score of 41 out of 100 confirms this is below average on income generation, and there is no scenario in which negative $863 per month becomes acceptable without either a much larger down payment, seller-financed debt at a lower coupon, or a meaningful increase in rents. The value-add operator has more of a case if distressed assets can be acquired well below the $321,830 median and repositioned to above-market rents, but the affordability index of 61 suggests the buyer pool is moderately constrained, which limits exit options to other investors rather than owner-occupants. The appreciation buyer who believes the 3.94% annual price growth is durable and is willing to carry negative cash flow as a cost of equity accumulation is the profile this market actually fits.

The taxInsurance data shows a combined monthly tax and insurance burden of $357, which is already baked into the negative cash-flow figure above. The state-average effective property tax rate of 0.98% is flagged as normal, meaning it is neither a meaningful tailwind nor a significant headwind. That said, $3,154 in annual property taxes on a $321,830 asset is not trivial, and because this figure is based on a state-average estimate, county and township rates in Stark may differ. Pull the actual assessor data before finalizing your underwrite, but do not expect the tax line to rescue the cash-flow story here.

The primary risk in Stark County is economic concentration. Dickinson, the county seat, is the commercial hub of the Bakken oil patch's western edge in North Dakota, which means rental demand is meaningfully tied to energy sector activity. When oil prices contracted sharply in 2015 and again in 2020, western North Dakota markets saw significant population and rental demand fluctuations. The data does not provide current vacancy statistics, but any investor underwriting here needs to stress-test the rent assumption against a scenario where energy employment pulls back. The stability score of 50 out of 100 reflects this, landing exactly at the midpoint nationally. This is not a market where you assume steady, diversified demand. The population of 32,989 also means a relatively thin tenant pool, so vacancy on even a handful of units can meaningfully affect your effective gross income at the portfolio level.

Against its neighbors, Stark presents a specific trade-off. Burleigh County, anchored by Bismarck, carries a higher median price ($352,675) but a nearly identical rent-to-price ratio (4.45% vs. Stark's 4.73%) and the same overall score of 58, meaning you pay more in Burleigh for a slightly worse gross yield but gain access to a larger, more diversified economy and a deeper tenant pool. Ward County (Minot) comes in at a $272,772 median with a 4.48% rent-to-price ratio and a marginally higher overall score of 59, offering lower entry cost and a military-adjacent tenant base at Minot Air Force Base that provides demand stability Stark cannot match. Walsh and Sargent counties offer median prices of $162,406 and $170,586 respectively, but their overall scores (both 58) and lack of rent data in this dataset make them harder to underwrite with confidence. Adams County at $139,351 is the cheapest entry point in the comp set but scores 57 overall. Choose Stark over its neighbors specifically if you have a thesis on sustained oil-patch activity driving rent growth and price appreciation, and you are capitalized to carry negative cash flow while that thesis plays out. Choose Ward County if you want lower entry cost with more demand-side stability, or Burleigh if you want Stark's appreciation characteristics with meaningfully less energy-sector concentration risk.