Mahoning County

Mahoning County sits at a gross rent-to-price ratio of 7.9%, which places it firmly on the cash-flow side of the spectrum for Ohio, though not without complications once you layer in financing. The 5.13% cap rate is respectable for a market where the median home price is $175,744, and year-over-year appreciation of 5.41% adds a meaningful equity component that most pure cash-flow markets in the Midwest cannot offer. The affordability index of 92 and median rent of $1,157 suggest the tenant base is broad and relatively price-sensitive, which limits upward rent pressure but also limits vacancy risk from overbuilding at the top of the rental range. Nationally, Mahoning ranks 40th out of 1,000 counties analyzed, landing in the 95th percentile overall, and sits 8th among 88 Ohio counties, which is a competitive position that warrants a closer look.

The modeled cash-on-cash return of -5.02% at the 20% down, 6.85% rate scenario is the number that defines who this market is and is not for right now. A leveraged buyer financing at current rates and targeting immediate positive cash flow will likely need to either negotiate the purchase price below $175,744, bring a larger down payment, or target properties that rent materially above the county median. The 5.13% cap rate, however, is attractive for an all-cash buyer or a value-add operator who can force appreciation through renovation, then refinance when rates compress. The appreciation score of 87 and 5.41% YoY price growth also make Mahoning worth underwriting for a hybrid buyer who can tolerate modest negative carry on the mortgage in exchange for equity accumulation, provided their balance sheet supports it. This is not a market for a thinly capitalized investor counting on month-one cash flow to cover expenses.

The tax and insurance picture deserves its own line on every underwrite. Ohio's state-average effective property tax rate of 1.56% is high enough to be a genuine drag, and at $175,744 in purchase price that translates to $2,742 in annual taxes and $404 in insurance, for a combined $262 per month before a single repair or vacancy dollar is spent. That figure eats directly into the spread between the $1,157 median rent and the $921 modeled mortgage payment, which is why the model goes negative even before the additional $405 in estimated operating expenses is applied. The 1.56% rate is a state-average estimate per Tax Foundation 2024 data, and actual Mahoning County township-level rates may differ, sometimes significantly, so pulling the parcel-level tax bill before closing is not optional. At this rate level, a $10,000 difference in purchase price has less impact on your return than the actual millage on a specific parcel.

Mahoning's stability score of 50 is the main flag in the data. That score is the lowest among the county metrics provided and likely reflects the post-industrial economic profile of the Youngstown metro, the core of which Mahoning County contains. No employer data was provided to assess anchor tenants or job concentration, so underwriting rental demand stability conservatively is appropriate. What the numbers do show is that the affordability index of 92 and a population of 228,000 support a large renter pool at the median price point, but an investor should independently verify local employment trends before committing capital.

Comparing Mahoning to its neighbors, Trumbull County to the north offers a slightly higher gross rent-to-price ratio of 7.99% versus Mahoning's 7.90%, at a lower median price of $160,493 and a median rent of $1,069. Trumbull scores 77 overall versus Mahoning's 76, a negligible difference. Lucas County, anchored by Toledo, has a similar rent-to-price ratio of 7.83% with a median price of $169,370 and rent of $1,105, but scores 75 overall. Scioto County at $135,788 and Crawford County at $152,867 both score 76, offering lower absolute entry points. Van Wert County at $186,971 scores 77, but at a higher entry price with no rent data provided for direct comparison. The case for choosing Mahoning over Trumbull comes down to the appreciation score, 87 for Mahoning versus no score provided for Trumbull, and the national percentile rank, which suggests Mahoning's price-rent dynamics are viewed more favorably at the model level. An investor specifically targeting the Youngstown metro for market familiarity or existing relationships should note that Trumbull's lower median price may allow for a better modeled cash position at current rates, while Mahoning's higher appreciation trajectory may win over a three-to-five year hold horizon.