Grundy County

Grundy County sits at a median home price of $215,826 with 4.0% year-over-year appreciation, which positions it firmly on the appreciation side of the cash-flow vs. appreciation spectrum. The cash flow score of 0 is the clearest signal in the data: at a 6.85% interest rate on a purchase requiring a $43,165 down payment, the numbers do not pencil for immediate cash flow without significant rent upside or a below-market acquisition. Cap rate and rent figures are not provided in the dataset, so any yield calculation would require local rent comps from the investor's own underwriting. What the data does confirm is an affordability index of 84 and an appreciation score of 83 out of 100, meaning prices remain accessible relative to most markets while still climbing at a pace that rewards patient holders. The county ranks 5th out of 95 Tennessee counties overall and sits at the 89th national percentile across 1,000 counties analyzed, which is a meaningful signal that this market is being recognized for its relative value.

The investor this market suits is an appreciation buyer with a longer hold horizon, not someone underwriting for day-one cash flow. The 4.0% annual price growth on a $215,826 median translates to roughly $8,700 in equity gain per year at the current pace, which is the primary return engine here. A value-add operator who can acquire below median, force equity through renovation, and push rents to justify the carry cost has a plausible path, but that thesis depends entirely on local rent comps that would need to be verified independently. A pure cash-flow buyer targeting a 7%+ cap rate should look elsewhere based on the data available. The affordability index of 84 does suggest there is room in the market for tenants, meaning demand for rentals from residents who cannot yet afford to buy, but without rent data in the dataset that demand cannot be quantified here.

No economic anchors or employer data were provided for Grundy County, so no claims about job drivers or employer stability are made here. Investors should conduct their own diligence on the local employment base, particularly given the county's population of 13,550, which is small enough that a single employer departure or contraction can meaningfully affect rental demand. A stability score of 50 out of 100 is worth taking seriously in that context: it is the lowest score in the county's profile and suggests the market carries meaningful economic or demographic uncertainty that a larger, more diversified metro would not.

On carry costs, the combined monthly tax and insurance burden comes to $192, based on Tennessee's state-average effective property tax rate of 0.71% and an insurance rate of 0.36%. That is a relatively modest figure compared to high-tax states, and the 0.71% rate earns a "normal" flag, meaning it is neither a tailwind nor a headwind in isolation. That said, the caveat in the data is worth repeating directly: this is a state-average estimate sourced from Tax Foundation 2024 data, and actual county or township rates in Grundy will likely differ. Verify the specific millage rate at the county assessor before finalizing any underwrite. At $192 per month for taxes and insurance combined, the carry cost structure is not punishing, but it does not rescue a deal that is already borderline on cash flow.

The primary risks in Grundy are concentration and demographic scale. A population of 13,550 means thin rental market liquidity, limited comparable sales for exit, and sensitivity to any economic disruption. If the anchor employers or industries in the county contract, vacancy and price pressure follow quickly in a market this size. No regulatory or vacancy data is present in the dataset to quantify these risks further, but small rural Tennessee counties generally carry limited tenant protection regulations, which is a mild operational tailwind, while also facing longer days-on-market when it comes time to sell.

Against its neighbors, Grundy's case rests on price and overall score. At $215,826 median, it is cheaper than Claiborne ($228,611, score 74), Rhea ($266,373, score 68), Lincoln ($257,281, score 68), and Anderson ($301,800, score 62), while matching or beating most on overall score at 73. Carroll County comes in cheaper at $180,314 but scores only 63 overall, suggesting Grundy offers better investment characteristics per dollar. Anderson County is the only neighbor with rent data in the dataset, showing a rent-to-price ratio of 0.0636 at a $301,800 median, which is a meaningful data point: if Grundy's rents tracked a similar ratio on a lower price base, the yield profile could look reasonable, but that extrapolation needs local verification. Choose Grundy over its neighbors when the thesis is appreciation on an affordable entry point in a higher-ranked market. Choose a neighbor when the priority is a larger population base, verified rent comps, or confirmed cash flow.