Hardeman County

Hardeman County comes in at a $163,272 median home price with 5.96% year-over-year appreciation, landing it in the 98th percentile nationally out of 1,000 counties scored, and second in Tennessee out of 95. The appreciation score of 89 is the headline number here, and the affordability index of 95 confirms the entry point is genuinely cheap relative to the market. What the data does not provide is a cap rate, cash-on-cash return, or rent estimate, which means the cash-flow score registers at zero. That is not necessarily a deal-killer, but it tells you something important about how this market is structured: Hardeman is scoring almost entirely on price appreciation trajectory and entry-point affordability, not on current yield. An investor going in here is essentially betting that the 5.96% annual price gain continues or accelerates, and that rents catch up to where a serviceable spread over a 6.85% mortgage becomes visible.

That profile makes Hardeman a poor fit for a cash-flow-first buyer who needs a property to carry itself from day one. Without a documented rent-to-price ratio or cap rate in the data, there is no basis for projecting positive leverage at a 6.85% financing rate on a $163,272 purchase with a $32,654 down payment. The appreciation buyer is the natural match: the median price is low enough that dollar-denominated gains on a 5.96% move are modest in absolute terms (roughly $9,700 per year on this median), but the percentile ranking suggests the county is outperforming most of the country on price momentum relative to its cost basis. A value-add operator could also find the affordability index of 95 useful if forced appreciation through renovation can close the gap between current rents and debt service, though that thesis requires local rent data this analysis does not have.

No economic anchors or employer data were provided for Hardeman County, so no claims about the underlying job base or rental demand drivers can be made here. That absence itself is a signal worth sitting with: before committing capital to a county of 25,519 people, an investor should independently verify what is actually employing the tenant base and whether that employment is durable. A population of this size in a rural Tennessee county creates real concentration risk by default. A single large employer exiting, a demographic shift, or a prolonged period without population inflows could stall or reverse the appreciation trend that is doing all the work in this score.

On carry costs, the combined monthly tax and insurance figure is $146, using a Tennessee state-average effective property tax rate of 0.71% and an insurance rate of 0.36%. The 0.71% tax rate carries a "normal" flag, meaning it is neither a tailwind nor a drag worth singling out, though the standard caveat applies: this is a state-average estimate from the Tax Foundation's 2024 data, and actual county or township rates in Hardeman will differ. Verify the real assessed rate with the county before finalizing any underwrite. At $146 per month all-in for tax and insurance on a $163,272 property, the carry cost is not punishing, but it also does not rescue a cash-flow story that is already missing a rent anchor.

The stability score of 50 is the number that deserves the most scrutiny. It sits exactly at the midpoint, implying meaningful volatility or uncertainty in the underlying demand signal. Combined with the zero cash-flow score and the absence of economic anchor data, the stability reading suggests this county rewards investors who can afford to be patient and wrong for a period of time, not investors who need the asset to behave predictably from the first lease signing.

Compared to its neighbors, Hardeman's $163,272 median is the second-lowest in the peer group, trailing only Carroll County at $180,314, which scores a 63 overall versus Hardeman's 79. That 16-point score gap on a $17,000 price difference argues clearly for Hardeman over Carroll if appreciation is the objective. Claiborne County scores 74 at $228,611, Rhea and Lincoln both score 68 at $266,373 and $257,281 respectively, and Anderson County scores 62 at $301,800 with a documented rent-to-price ratio of 0.064. If cash flow is the priority, Anderson's 6.4% gross rent-to-price ratio at least gives you a number to underwrite against, even at a price point nearly double Hardeman's. Choose Hardeman over its neighbors when the thesis is: lowest-cost entry into a high-ranking Tennessee appreciation market, with a long enough hold horizon to let price momentum do the work.