Lewis County

Lewis County scores an 87 on appreciation and a 0 on cash flow, which tells you almost everything you need to know before running a single number. At a $256,048 median home price and 5.42% year-over-year price growth, this is a market that rewards patient capital, not leveraged yield-seekers. The cap rate and cash-on-cash return fields return zero, meaning the income side of the equation either doesn't cover operating costs at current prices and a 6.85% rate, or rental income data is thin enough that no reliable figure can be modeled. Either way, investors buying here for monthly spread are going to be disappointed. The appreciation score of 87, combined with an affordability index of 75 and a national percentile rank of 86th out of 1,000 counties, suggests this market is still accessible relative to national comparables while posting price growth that outpaces most of the country.

The investor profile this market fits is narrow but specific: a long-horizon appreciation buyer who can carry a property at neutral or slightly negative cash flow and wait for equity accumulation, or a second-home or vacation rental operator who can generate income through short-term channels that a long-term rent model won't capture. A traditional buy-and-hold landlord expecting monthly cash flow at a 6.85% mortgage rate and a $256,048 purchase price is likely going to find the numbers don't pencil, particularly in a county of 12,637 people where rent ceilings are set by local income rather than urban demand. The stability score of 50 adds another layer of caution for that buy-and-hold profile, suggesting the market doesn't have the economic depth to absorb shocks the way a larger metro does.

No economic anchor data was provided for Lewis County, so characterizing the local employer base or job stability would require speculation. What the population figure does signal is a thin tenant pool. At 12,637 residents, Lewis is a small rural county, and small tenant pools concentrate vacancy risk. A single large employer departure or demographic shift has an outsized effect in a market this size compared to a county with ten times the population. Investors accustomed to urban or suburban markets should build that concentration risk into their hold scenarios, not just their underwriting.

On carry costs, the combined monthly tax and insurance figure is $228, based on a state-average effective property tax rate of 0.71% and an insurance rate of 0.36%. Tennessee's 0.71% rate carries a "normal" flag, meaning it's neither a meaningful tailwind nor a drag that demands special attention on the underwrite. That said, the note from the Tax Foundation data is worth keeping: this is a state-average estimate and county or township rates in Lewis County may differ. Pull the actual assessor data before closing. At $228 per month combined, taxes and insurance are manageable relative to the purchase price, but in a market where cash flow is already zeroed out, every dollar of carry cost matters.

The primary risks here are concentration and demographics. A county of 12,637 has limited economic diversification almost by definition, and a stability score of 50 reflects that. Rental demand is constrained by population size, and without identified institutional employers anchoring local jobs, there is no obvious backstop if the residential market softens. The 5.42% appreciation rate is compelling, but appreciation in small rural markets can reverse quickly when buyer sentiment shifts, interest rates stay elevated, or out-of-market demand, which often drives rural price appreciation cycles, fades. There is no vacancy or regulatory data in the provided dataset, so those risks cannot be quantified here.

Compared to its neighbors, Lewis sits in an interesting position. Its overall score of 72 beats Rhea County (68) and Lincoln County (68) despite Rhea carrying a slightly higher median price of $266,373. Carroll County at $180,313 and a score of 63 is the cheapest option in the comparison set but scores lowest overall, suggesting its affordability doesn't translate to investor-grade performance. Anderson County, at $301,799 and a 6.36% rent-to-price ratio, is the only neighbor with published rental income data, and that ratio suggests meaningfully better cash flow prospects than Lewis, though its overall score of 62 and higher entry price reflect tradeoffs. Claiborne County at $228,611 and a score of 74 edges Lewis on the overall score while costing $27,000 less at the median, making it worth modeling in parallel if price sensitivity matters. Choose Lewis over its neighbors if your thesis is purely appreciation and you are comfortable with a thin tenant market. Choose Claiborne if you want comparable performance metrics at a lower basis, or Anderson if cash flow is a non-negotiable part of the model.