Morgan County

Morgan County sits at a median home price of $220,978, up 4.17% year-over-year, with an affordability index of 83 out of 100. That combination, rising prices on a still-accessible base, puts this county firmly in the appreciation camp rather than the cash-flow camp. The cash-flow score of 0 is a direct signal: at a $220,978 purchase price and a 6.85% rate, the rent-to-price dynamics here are not generating day-one income. No cap rate or gross yield is calculable from the provided data, which itself tells you something, the market is priced for future value gains, not current income generation. The 4.17% annual price appreciation is meaningful but not speculative, and the affordability score of 83 suggests the county has not yet priced out the buyer pool that sustains demand.

The investor this market suits is someone buying for long-term appreciation and equity accumulation, not a cash-flow operator trying to cover costs from day one. An affordability index of 83 and a median price under $221,000 attract owner-occupant demand and entry-level renters, which supports occupancy over time, but the rent levels do not appear to justify the carry at current rates. A value-add operator looking to force appreciation through renovation could find opportunity here given the price basis, but they should not underwrite to a positive cash-flow outcome without a significant discount to that $220,978 median or a material rent premium over the market. The appreciation score of 83 and the national percentile rank of 89th out of 1,000 counties both point to Morgan outperforming most of the country on price trajectory, so the pure appreciation buyer has a real case to make.

The economic context matters here. Morgan County is a rural Tennessee county of 21,124 people, and the stability score of 50 reflects the concentration risk inherent in small, less economically diversified markets. No specific economic anchors were provided for this county, so the employment base and major employers cannot be assessed from this data. That absence is itself a flag: investors should independently verify what drives local income before committing capital, because a market this size with no identifiable anchor institutions carries real downside if the local economy softens.

On carry costs, the combined monthly tax and insurance burden runs $197, based on a state-average effective property tax rate of 0.71% and an insurance rate of 0.36%. That tax rate sits in normal territory, neither a headwind to flag specifically nor a tailwind to lean on. The honest caveat here is that 0.71% is a state-average estimate drawn from Tax Foundation 2024 data, and the actual county or township rate in Morgan County may differ, so verify the exact millage before finalizing your underwrite. The $197 monthly figure is not punishing, but combined with a mortgage at 6.85% on a $220,978 purchase with 20% down, total monthly obligations leave little room for positive cash flow at market rents.

The primary risks here are concentration and demographic scale. A population of 21,124 means the tenant pool is thin. Any softening in local employment, an outmigration trend, or a large new supply addition would have outsized effects relative to a larger metro. Regulatory risk is not flagged by the available data, but small rural Tennessee counties generally carry lighter landlord regulatory burdens than urban markets. Investors should watch demographic trends independently, particularly whether the county is gaining or losing working-age residents, as that will determine whether the appreciation story has legs.

Compared to its neighbors, Morgan County offers the lowest median home price among the group except for Carroll County at $180,314, and carries a higher overall score of 73 than all five neighbors listed. Claiborne County is the closest comparable at a score of 74 and a median of $228,611, essentially a coin flip with Morgan on both dimensions. Rhea, Lincoln, Anderson, and Carroll all score between 62 and 68, making Morgan the standout in the peer group by overall rating. Anderson County, at $301,799 median and a rent-to-price ratio of 0.0636, offers meaningfully better cash-flow characteristics than Morgan, making it the better choice for the income-focused buyer willing to pay up on price. An investor should choose Morgan over its neighbors specifically when the thesis is appreciation at a low entry price, when capital preservation matters more than monthly yield, and when the 89th national percentile ranking is the anchor of the investment case rather than day-one income.