Overton County

Overton County lands in the 89th percentile nationally and ranks 5th out of 95 Tennessee counties with an overall score of 73, driven almost entirely by its appreciation score of 90. The median home price of $264,078 grew 6.44% year-over-year, which is the headline number here. The cash flow score is 0, meaning the data does not support a positive carry thesis at current prices and a 6.85% rate, and no cap rate is calculable from what's provided. This is squarely an appreciation play, not a yield play, and underwriting it as anything else would be a mistake.

That appreciation score of 90 tells you who this market suits: a buyer whose return model leans on equity accumulation rather than monthly spread. An affordability index of 73 means prices are still accessible relative to income, which matters because affordability is what sustains price appreciation over time. Markets that appreciate into unaffordability stall. Overton hasn't done that yet at a $264,078 median, which is meaningfully below many Tennessee metros. If your acquisition strategy involves buying in a market before it fully prices in, holding five to ten years, and refinancing or selling into a higher comp environment, Overton's profile fits. A cash-flow-first operator running a tight DSCR model at 6.85% will struggle to pencil deals here without a significant down payment, a below-market acquisition, or a value-add angle that pushes rents above what the current data supports.

No economic anchor or employer data was provided for Overton, so that dimension of the demand analysis sits with the investor to verify locally. What the demographic data does confirm is a population of 22,576, which means this is a small rural county. Rental demand in markets this size tends to be thinner and more concentrated around whatever local employment exists. That's not a disqualifier, but it means vacancy risk is real and worth stress-testing. A single employer exit or a highway bypass can reprice the market faster than it can in a county of 200,000. At a stability score of 50, the data already signals this concern.

On carry costs, the combined monthly tax and insurance estimate comes to $236, based on a state-average effective property tax rate of 0.71% and an insurance rate of 0.36%, producing annual figures of $1,875 in tax and $951 in insurance. That note deserves emphasis: this is a state-average estimate from Tax Foundation 2024 data, and actual rates at the county or township level may differ materially. At 0.71%, the rate is neither a tailwind nor a serious headwind, it sits in normal territory and won't blow up a deal on its own. But in a market where you're relying on appreciation rather than cash flow, that $236 monthly floor still has to come from somewhere, and at a zero cash flow score it's likely coming out of pocket or being offset by a larger down payment.

The specific risk worth flagging here is concentration. A county of 22,576 with a stability score of 50 and no available cap rate data is not a market where you hold a single asset and assume smooth sailing. Thin rental pools in rural Tennessee can mean extended vacancy between tenants, limited exit liquidity if you need to sell quickly, and a buyer pool that is more sensitive to rate cycles than an urban market. Regulatory risk is not flagged by the data and no vacancy statistics are available to cite, so those remain due-diligence items rather than scored concerns.

Against its neighbors, Overton holds up reasonably well on overall score. Claiborne County scores one point higher at 74 with a median price of $228,611, making it the most direct comparison: lower entry price and a slightly better overall score, so if price point matters, Claiborne deserves a look. Rhea County and Lincoln County both score 68, below Overton's 73, with median prices of $266,373 and $257,281 respectively, offering no clear advantage in either price or score. Carroll County at a $180,314 median and a score of 63 is cheaper but scores notably lower, suggesting the discount comes with tradeoffs. Anderson County scores 62 despite a $301,800 median, but it's the only neighbor with rent data available: a median rent of $1,600.74 against that price produces a rent-to-price ratio of 0.0636, which is thin. Choose Overton over its neighbors when you're prioritizing the combination of a 90 appreciation score and a still-accessible price point. Choose Claiborne if you want to step down in basis and are willing to accept a comparable overall profile with less appreciation momentum.