Dinwiddie market analysis
Dinwiddie County scores an 89 on appreciation and a 0 on cash flow, which tells you almost everything you need to know before running a single number. Median home prices sit at $304,811, up 5.96% year over year, and the county ranks in the 81st percentile nationally out of 1,000 counties tracked. The affordability index of 65 suggests prices are getting stretched relative to local incomes, a pattern that typically accompanies appreciation-driven markets where renters are priced out of ownership and landlords benefit from that pressure on the demand side, but where the math on monthly cash flow is correspondingly tight. The investment estimate data does not include a derived cap rate or cash-on-cash figure for Dinwiddie itself, which is a signal worth taking seriously: this is not a market where the numbers pencil on day one without a meaningful equity play built into the thesis.
That profile points squarely at the appreciation buyer, not the cash-flow landlord or the value-add operator looking for spread. A 5.96% annual price gain on a $304,811 asset generates roughly $18,000 in equity appreciation per year at that rate, which is where the return story lives. The stability score of 50 tempers that somewhat, indicating this is not a set-it-and-forget-it hold. At 6.85% on a 20% down conventional loan ($60,962 down), the mortgage payment alone will consume a substantial share of any achievable rent, making positive cash flow the exception rather than the rule unless a buyer brings more equity to the table or finds a significantly below-market acquisition.
The combined monthly tax and insurance burden runs $267, based on Virginia's state-average effective property tax rate of 0.82% and an insurance rate of 0.23%, translating to $2,499 and $701 annually. The 0.82% rate is flagged as normal, which is accurate in a national context, and it does not materially alter the cash-flow picture beyond what the mortgage already does. That said, $267 per month is a real number on your underwrite, particularly when the cash flow is already at zero. The state-average rate used here is an estimate from Tax Foundation 2024 data, and actual Dinwiddie County rates may differ, so pull the county assessor's current levy before finalizing any pro forma.
Dinwiddie sits in south-central Virginia, roughly 25 miles south of Petersburg and within commuting distance of the Richmond metropolitan area. No economic anchor or employer data was provided for this county specifically, so drawing conclusions about job-base concentration or demand drivers from named entities is not possible with the available data. What the population figure of 28,057 does indicate is a small, likely exurban market, and buyers should independently assess whether rental demand is driven by Richmond overflow, local employment, or military proximity, since each of those demand sources carries a different risk profile.
At a population of 28,057, market depth is the primary structural risk. A thin renter pool means individual vacancy events hit harder, and there is less cushion if a single large employer contracts or a demographic trend shifts. The stability score of 50 is consistent with that concern. An investor accustomed to operating in a mid-sized metro should underwrite longer average days-on-market for vacant units and build at least one to two months of vacancy into annual projections.
Comparing Dinwiddie to its listed neighbors clarifies where it fits. Mecklenburg County comes in at a median price of $212,716 with a rent-to-price ratio of 8.4%, which is a materially better starting yield for a cash-flow buyer. Roanoke City at $215,833 median and a 7.1% rent-to-price ratio offers similar logic with a larger renter population and a deeper market. Roanoke County, at $325,167 median and a 5.8% rent-to-price ratio, is actually slightly more expensive than Dinwiddie while producing a lower yield, making it the weaker comparison on both counts. Botetourt County at $301,444 is priced similarly but carries an overall score of 69 versus Dinwiddie's 70, essentially a wash. The investor who should choose Dinwiddie over its neighbors is one whose primary return hypothesis is price appreciation in the Richmond commuter corridor, not current income. If cash flow is the primary objective, Mecklenburg at 8.4% gross yield deserves the first look.
Price History
Median Home Price
Median Rent
Historical data from Zillow ZHVI/ZORI
Score Breakdown
Rent data not available for cash flow calculation.
Based on 6.0% YoY price growth. Moderate growth (3-8%) scores highest.
Population data not available.
Based on price relative to estimated local incomes.
Scores are calculated using real Zillow home value and rent data, Census population data, and economic indicators. The weighted average produces the overall investment score. Markets with missing rent data use estimated values based on regional averages.
Investment Outlook
Strengths
- +Strong price appreciation (+6.0% YoY)
Challenges
- -Negative leverage (cap rate 0.0% < mortgage rate 6.9%)
- -Limited rent data (estimates used)
Economic Indicators
Who this market fits
- +Appreciation buyers: YoY growth is meaningfully above the long-run average
- −You can't tolerate negative leverage (cap rate below mortgage rate today)
Compare to Nearby Counties
Section 8 in Dinwiddie County: payment standards by ZIP, PHA waitlist status, and voucher counts are on VoucherMatch, the same HUD dataset with the tenant demand side attached.
The Bottom Line
Dinwiddie County in Virginia scores 70/100, ranking #149 of 1,000 US counties (top 19%). At 20% down and current rates, a median-priced rental roughly breaks even on cash flow. The deal works on appreciation or with better terms, not on month-one cash flow.