Hardin County

Hardin County sits at a median home price of $215,880 with year-over-year appreciation of 4.09%, landing it in the 89th percentile nationally and 5th out of 95 counties in Tennessee. That price point, combined with an affordability index of 84, signals a market that hasn't been priced out of reach the way many Tennessee metros have. The appreciation score of 83 is the standout metric here, while the cash flow score registers at zero, which tells you what you need to know about where this market sits on the spectrum: it leans appreciation, not monthly income. With key return figures like cap rate and cash-on-cash return absent from the underlying data, investors should run their own full pro forma before committing, but the price level and appreciation trajectory suggest you're buying into price growth, not yield.

This market suits an appreciation-oriented buyer or a long-hold investor comfortable with thin near-term cash flow. At $215,880 and 4.09% annual price growth, the entry cost is low enough that a patient investor can absorb modest monthly margins while equity compounds. A cash flow buyer hunting 8%+ cash-on-cash from day one will likely be frustrated here, given the zero cash flow score, and should look elsewhere. A value-add operator might find opportunity in the affordability gap: with an affordability index of 84, local renters can absorb rent, but the question is whether sufficient distressed or under-renovated inventory exists to manufacture a spread. The low median price does create room to acquire without outsized leverage, which helps carry costs during a stabilization period, particularly with a 6.85% interest rate environment that compresses margins across the board.

On taxes and insurance, the combined monthly carry is $193, broken out as $1,533 annually in property tax and $777 in insurance. The effective property tax rate of 0.71% carries a "normal" flag, meaning it's neither a tailwind nor a red flag for underwriting purposes, though investors should note this figure is a state-average estimate from Tax Foundation 2024 data, and actual Hardin County or township-level rates may differ. At $193 per month, the tax and insurance line is manageable relative to the price point, but it still needs to sit clearly in your model before you pencil in a target rent.

The stability score of 50 is the number that demands attention. At the midpoint of the scale for a county of 26,824 people, this signals real concentration risk. Small-county markets with limited population can see meaningful rent and price volatility when a single employer or industry contracts, and a market this size doesn't have the diversification buffer that a larger MSA provides. Without specific economic anchor data provided here, the full picture of what drives local rental demand, whether manufacturing, healthcare, tourism tied to Shiloh National Military Park, or something else, isn't quantifiable from the available inputs. Investors should do their own diligence on employment base before sizing a position. Demographic concentration in a sub-30,000 population county also means that tenant pool depth is limited, which affects both lease-up timelines and re-leasing risk on turnover.

Against its neighbors, Hardin's case is straightforward. Claiborne County scores nearly the same at 74 versus Hardin's 73, but at $228,611 it costs more to get in for essentially equivalent results. Rhea and Lincoln counties both score 68, at $266,373 and $257,281 respectively, meaning you're paying 19 to 23 percent more for a lower overall score. Carroll County is cheaper at $180,314 but scores only 63, and that 10-point gap in overall score likely reflects weaker appreciation or stability metrics worth scrutinizing. Anderson County has the richest data of the group: at $301,800 with a rent-to-price ratio of 0.0636 and a median rent of $1,601, it offers more yield signal, but it scores only 62 overall and costs 40% more to enter. If your thesis is appreciation at an accessible price with manageable carry costs, Hardin at $215,880 and a score of 73 beats every neighbor on the price-to-score relationship. Choose Hardin over Anderson if appreciation and entry cost matter more than current yield; choose Anderson if you want a deeper rental market with more visible rent data and are willing to pay a significant price premium for that liquidity.