Union County

Union County, Tennessee sits at a median home price of $298,606 with year-over-year appreciation of 3.4%, and its appreciation score of 81 out of 100 is the clearest signal about where this market earns its keep. The cash flow score of 0 tells you the other side of the story: the data does not support modeling this as an income-generating machine out of the box. With no cap rate or rent-to-price ratio available for Union itself, the honest read is that this is an appreciation-tilted market in a small county of fewer than 20,000 people. Its overall score of 67 and a national percentile rank of 73rd out of 1,000 counties puts it in the upper quarter nationally, but that rank is driven by price trajectory and affordability relative to comparable markets, not by cash-flow mechanics. The affordability index of 66 suggests the market is not cheap in absolute terms but remains accessible enough that buyer demand, and by extension rent demand, has a floor.

This market suits an appreciation buyer or a long-hold investor who is comfortable with thin or neutral monthly cash flow in exchange for equity growth. The 3.4% annual price appreciation on a $298,606 asset represents roughly $10,150 in paper equity per year, which is the core return thesis here. A cash-flow buyer looking to clear meaningful monthly income should look elsewhere, as the available data simply does not support that underwrite. A value-add operator might find opportunity in a low-competition rural county where off-market deals are more available, but the small population of 19,860 limits the depth of the rental pool, which constrains how aggressively you can underwrite stabilized rents after a renovation.

On carry costs, the combined monthly tax and insurance figure of $266 is based on a state-average effective property tax rate of 0.71% and an insurance rate of 0.36%, producing annual property tax of $2,120 and annual insurance of $1,075. Tennessee's 0.71% rate is in the normal range and does not stand out as a drag on cash flow the way a high-tax state would. That said, this is a state-average estimate, and actual county and township rates in Union County may differ, so confirm the specific millage rate before closing. At $266 per month combined, taxes and insurance are a manageable line item, but on a deal where gross rents are already modest, every fixed cost matters.

Union County is a rural market with a population under 20,000, which carries concentration risk that deserves explicit acknowledgment. A county this small means the rental market is thin: a handful of vacant properties can meaningfully shift local vacancy dynamics, and a single employer layoff or infrastructure change can ripple through renter demand in ways that larger metro-adjacent counties absorb more easily. The stability score of 50 reflects this, sitting exactly at the midpoint and signaling a market that is neither particularly resilient nor particularly fragile based on available data. Investors should underwrite conservatively on vacancy assumptions precisely because the sample size of comparable rentals is small.

Compared to its neighbors, Union County presents a specific trade-off. Rhea County and Lincoln County both score 68 overall, slightly above Union's 67, with median prices of $266,373 and $257,281 respectively. Those lower entry points mean less capital at risk and potentially better rent-to-price ratios, though neither has rent data provided here. Anderson County at $301,800 and a rent-to-price ratio of 0.0636 and Greene County at $240,638 and a ratio of 0.0652 both have measurable rental markets with more data to underwrite against. Greene County in particular, at $240,638 median and a 6.52% gross rent-to-price ratio, offers a clearer cash-flow pathway for a buyer who needs to see income from day one. Carroll County at $180,314 and an overall score of 63 is the cheapest entry in this peer group but scores below Union on every dimension. Choose Union over its neighbors if the appreciation trajectory of 3.4% and the 81 appreciation score are your primary return driver and you are willing to hold for three to five years or more to let that equity build, rather than relying on monthly income to service the investment from the start.