Harris market analysis
Harris County, Georgia sits firmly in appreciation territory. At a median home price of $375,897 and median rent of $1,647.50, the gross rent-to-price ratio comes in at 0.53%, which translates to a 3.42% cap rate at standard underwriting. Year-over-year home price growth of 4.54% is doing real work here, but that same appreciation is compressing yield. The cash-flow math is blunt: modeled at 6.85% financing with a $75,179 down payment, the estimated monthly mortgage of $1,970 against total estimated expenses of $577 produces a negative cash flow of $900 per month and a cash-on-cash return of -12.49%. This is not a cash-flow market. The overall score of 58 out of 100, with a cash-flow sub-score of 49 and an appreciation sub-score of 85, makes the tradeoff explicit. Harris scores in the 46th percentile nationally and 56th out of 159 Georgia counties, which tells you it is a mid-tier appreciation play, not a breakout market and not a discount market.
The investor this market suits is someone who can carry negative cash flow and is underwriting for price appreciation as the primary return driver. An affordability index of 49 and an affordability score of 49 suggest the county is already stretched for local renters, which puts a ceiling on how aggressively you can push rents without losing occupancy to more affordable submarkets. A pure cash-flow buyer should exit this analysis now. A value-add operator hunting distressed assets might find individual deals that pencil better than the median, but the median itself at $375,897 leaves little margin for the buy-at-discount, renovate, and refi playbook unless purchase prices are meaningfully below median. The appreciation buyer accepting a loss today in exchange for equity accumulation over a five-to-seven-year hold is the profile this county is built for, provided they have reserves to absorb that $900 monthly shortfall.
The monthly tax and insurance burden here is $401, which at a state-average effective property tax rate of 0.92% is flagged as normal, meaning it is not an outsized drag on the carry cost. That said, $401 per month is already baked into the $577 estimated expenses figure, and at a 0.92% rate on a $375,897 asset, the $3,458 in annual property tax is a real line item. The rate is within a normal range for Georgia, so it is not the underwriting landmine you would see in a high-tax state, but note that 0.92% is a state-average estimate and actual county or township millage rates may differ. Verify the Harris County tax digest rate directly before closing. The insurance figure of $1,353 annually, or $113 per month, is consistent with Georgia's exposure profile and does not represent a material outlier.
The stability score of 50 and the relatively small population of 34,914 point to concentration risk. A county this size has limited economic diversification by definition. Any single large employer, infrastructure project, or demographic shift carries outsized influence on rental demand and vacancy. The data does not provide specific economic anchors for Harris County, so no employer names can be cited, but investors should independently verify what is driving the 4.54% year-over-year price appreciation. If it is spillover demand from a nearby metro, that demand can reverse faster than locally anchored job growth. If it is driven by a specific development or institutional project, the sustainability question matters before you accept a negative-carry position.
Compared to its neighbors, Harris County has the highest median home price in the comparison set at $375,897, and the lowest rent-to-price ratio at 0.53%. Carroll County at $283,747 and a rent-to-price ratio of 0.69% delivers meaningfully better gross yield on a lower basis. Jackson County at $399,130 has a higher price point but a rent-to-price ratio of 0.65% and a median rent of $2,163, which suggests a more liquid rental market with stronger rent-to-price coverage. Bulloch County at $281,362 and a 0.66% rent-to-price ratio, and Stephens County at $240,436 and a 0.67% ratio, both offer better cash-flow profiles than Harris at lower entry prices. Harris's overall score of 58 is competitive with Carroll at 57, Stephens at 57, Jackson at 59, and Bulloch at 59, so it is not a standout on composite score either. Choose Harris over these neighbors only if you have a specific thesis on its 85 appreciation score, can verify the drivers of that 4.54% price growth, and have the capital reserves to fund the monthly shortfall during the hold period. If cash flow matters in year one or two, Carroll, Bulloch, or Stephens give you a better starting position.
Scenario comparison
| Scenario | Purchase price | Monthly cash flow | Cap rate | Cash-on-cash |
|---|---|---|---|---|
75% of median value-add or distressed | $281,923 | -$407/mo | 4.6% | -7.5% |
Median typical MLS deal | $375,897 | -$900/mo | 3.4% | -12.5% |
125% of median newer / premium | $469,871 | -$1,393/mo | 2.7% | -15.5% |
Price History
Median Home Price
Median Rent
Historical data from Zillow ZHVI/ZORI
Quick Investment Calculator
Purchase
Monthly Cash Flow
* Based on county median values. 35% expenses include taxes, insurance, maintenance, vacancy, and property management. Actual results vary by property.
Score Breakdown
Based on 5.26% rent-to-price ratio. Higher ratios indicate stronger cash flow potential.
Based on 4.5% YoY price growth. Moderate growth (3-8%) scores highest.
Population data not available.
Based on price relative to estimated local incomes.
Scores are calculated using real Zillow home value and rent data, Census population data, and economic indicators. The weighted average produces the overall investment score. Markets with missing rent data use estimated values based on regional averages.
Investment Outlook
Strengths
- +Complete rent data available
Challenges
- -Below-average rent-to-price ratio (5.26%)
- -Negative cash flow at typical financing (-$900/mo)
- -Negative leverage (cap rate 3.4% < mortgage rate 6.9%)
Economic Indicators
Who this market fits
- +Patient holders willing to accept negative carry for equity gains
- +All-cash buyers: removing debt service flips the cap rate to actual yield
- −You need positive cash flow on day one at typical leverage
- −You can't tolerate negative leverage (cap rate below mortgage rate today)
Compare to Nearby Counties
Section 8 in Harris County: payment standards by ZIP, PHA waitlist status, and voucher counts are on VoucherMatch, the same HUD dataset with the tenant demand side attached.
The Bottom Line
Harris County in Georgia scores 58/100, ranking #426 of 1,000 US counties (top 54%). At 20% down and current rates, a median-priced rental loses about $900/month; the 5.26% gross rent-to-price ratio doesn't survive debt service. The thesis here is appreciation, value-add, house hacking, or all-cash.