Lawrence County

Lawrence County prices out at a median of $243,136 with median rent of $1,168, producing a gross rent-to-price ratio of 0.58%. That puts the annualized gross yield around 6.9%, but the cap rate the numbers actually support lands at 3.74%, which tells you expenses are doing real work here. Running a standard 20% down at 6.85%, the modeled monthly mortgage is $1,275 against estimated expenses of $409, for a total carry of roughly $1,684 on a property renting at $1,168. The result is negative $516 per month cash flow and a cash-on-cash return of negative 11.07%. This is not a cash-flow market at current rates. What it does offer is appreciation: home prices rose 3.96% year-over-year, the appreciation score sits at 83 out of 100, and the overall score of 66 ranks the county 233rd nationally out of 1,000 and 14th within Tennessee's 95 counties. That ranking (top 15% of the state) reflects a market that is competitive on price relative to where it appears to be heading, not where it is generating income today.

Given those mechanics, Lawrence County fits an appreciation buyer better than a cash-flow operator. Someone willing to accept negative carry in exchange for price growth has a median entry point under $244,000 and an affordability index of 78, meaning the county is still accessible relative to income before prices compress further. A pure cash-flow buyer, by contrast, needs to look hard at the numbers: the cap rate of 3.74% is well below the 6.85% cost of debt, so leverage is working against you on day one. A value-add operator can potentially close part of that gap by forcing rents above the $1,168 median, but the base spread between yield and financing cost is wide enough that even a meaningful rent lift leaves thin margins. The cash-flow score of 56 and stability score of 50 confirm this is not a set-and-forget income play.

The tax and insurance picture does not make the carry story worse than average. At Tennessee's state-average effective property tax rate of 0.71%, annual taxes on the median property run approximately $1,726, and insurance adds another $875 annually, for a combined $217 per month. That combined figure is already baked into the $409 estimated expenses above, so there is no hidden shock there. The 0.71% rate carries a "normal" flag, meaning it is neither a headwind worth flagging separately nor a meaningful tailwind. Worth noting: the 0.71% is a state-average estimate from Tax Foundation 2024 data, and actual Lawrence County township-level rates may differ, so pull the county assessor's numbers before closing.

No economic anchor data was provided for Lawrence County, so specific employer and sector commentary is omitted here. What the demographic snapshot does show is a population of 44,377, a smaller market that limits both the tenant pool depth and the exit liquidity that larger metros offer. Smaller county populations create concentration risk: if a major local employer were to contract or relocate, rental demand could soften faster than it would in a diversified metro. The stability score of 50 out of 100 is the lowest of Lawrence's five scored categories and should be read as a real flag. Investors who need predictable occupancy to service negative carry are taking on compounded risk if the local economy hiccups.

Compared to the neighbors in the data, Lawrence County is priced below Rhea ($266,373, score 68), Lincoln ($257,281, score 68), and Anderson ($301,800, score 62), and it scores above all four neighbors listed at an overall 66. The most instructive comparison is Anderson County, where the rent-to-price ratio of 0.64% beats Lawrence's 0.58%, and the median rent of $1,601 provides more monthly income against a higher purchase price of $301,800. An investor primarily chasing yield should lean toward Anderson. Greene County is the other standout: median price of $240,638, nearly identical to Lawrence, but a rent-to-price ratio of 0.65% against Lawrence's 0.58% and a median rent of $1,308. On pure cash-flow mechanics, Greene delivers more income for roughly the same acquisition cost. Lawrence makes the most sense over these neighbors when the buyer's thesis is price appreciation at the lowest entry point, given the 3.96% annual price gain and the appreciation score of 83 that none of the neighbors listed can be directly compared against due to missing data. If your hold period is five-plus years and you can carry the negative monthly cash flow from equity or other income, Lawrence County's price trajectory and relative affordability make it a defensible appreciation play within Tennessee. If income starts on day one is the requirement, the data points elsewhere.